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Charter 08 – 零八宪章

26 Jul

English Version:

I. Foreword

A hundred years have passed since the writing of China’s first constitution. 2008 also marks the sixtieth anniversary of the promulgation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the thirtieth anniversary of the appearance of Democracy Wall in Beijing, and the tenth of China’s signing of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. We are approaching the twentieth anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre of pro-democracy student protesters. The Chinese people, who have endured human rights disasters and uncountable struggles across these same years, now include many who see clearly that freedom, equality, and human rights are universal values of humankind and that democracy and constitutional government are the fundamental framework for protecting these values.

By departing from these values, the Chinese government’s approach to “modernization” has proven disastrous. It has stripped people of their rights, destroyed their dignity, and corrupted normal human intercourse. So we ask: Where is China headed in the twenty-first century? Will it continue with “modernization” under authoritarian rule, or will it embrace universal human values, join the mainstream of civilized nations, and build a democratic system? There can be no avoiding these questions.

The shock of the Western impact upon China in the nineteenth century laid bare a decadent authoritarian system and marked the beginning of what is often called “the greatest changes in thousands of years” for China. A “self-strengthening movement” followed, but this aimed simply at appropriating the technology to build gunboats and other Western material objects. China’s humiliating naval defeat at the hands of Japan in 1895 only confirmed the obsolescence of China’s system of government. The first attempts at modern political change came with the ill-fated summer of reforms in 1898, but these were cruelly crushed by ultraconservatives at China’s imperial court. With the revolution of 1911, which inaugurated Asia’s first republic, the authoritarian imperial system that had lasted for centuries was finally supposed to have been laid to rest. But social conflict inside our country and external pressures were to prevent it; China fell into a patchwork of warlord fiefdoms and the new republic became a fleeting dream.

The failure of both “self-strengthening” and political renovation caused many of our forebears to reflect deeply on whether a “cultural illness” was afflicting our country. This mood gave rise, during the May Fourth Movement of the late 1910s, to the championing of “science and democracy.” Yet that effort, too, foundered as warlord chaos persisted and the Japanese invasion [beginning in Manchuria in 1931] brought national crisis.

Victory over Japan in 1945 offered one more chance for China to move toward modern government, but the Communist defeat of the Nationalists in the civil war thrust the nation into the abyss of totalitarianism. The “new China” that emerged in 1949 proclaimed that “the people are sovereign” but in fact set up a system in which “the Party is all-powerful.” The Communist Party of China seized control of all organs of the state and all political, economic, and social resources, and, using these, has produced a long trail of human rights disasters, including, among many others, the Anti-Rightist Campaign (1957), the Great Leap Forward (1958–1960), the Cultural Revolution (1966–1969), the June Fourth (Tiananmen Square) Massacre (1989), and the current repression of all unauthorized religions and the suppression of the weiquan rights movement [a movement that aims to defend citizens' rights promulgated in the Chinese Constitution and to fight for human rights recognized by international conventions that the Chinese government has signed]. During all this, the Chinese people have paid a gargantuan price. Tens of millions have lost their lives, and several generations have seen their freedom, their happiness, and their human dignity cruelly trampled.

During the last two decades of the twentieth century the government policy of “Reform and Opening” gave the Chinese people relief from the pervasive poverty and totalitarianism of the Mao Zedong era and brought substantial increases in the wealth and living standards of many Chinese as well as a partial restoration of economic freedom and economic rights. Civil society began to grow, and popular calls for more rights and more political freedom have grown apace. As the ruling elite itself moved toward private ownership and the market economy, it began to shift from an outright rejection of “rights” to a partial acknowledgment of them.

In 1998 the Chinese government signed two important international human rights conventions; in 2004 it amended its constitution to include the phrase “respect and protect human rights”; and this year, 2008, it has promised to promote a “national human rights action plan.” Unfortunately most of this political progress has extended no further than the paper on which it is written. The political reality, which is plain for anyone to see, is that China has many laws but no rule of law; it has a constitution but no constitutional government. The ruling elite continues to cling to its authoritarian power and fights off any move toward political change.

The stultifying results are endemic official corruption, an undermining of the rule of law, weak human rights, decay in public ethics, crony capitalism, growing inequality between the wealthy and the poor, pillage of the natural environment as well as of the human and historical environments, and the exacerbation of a long list of social conflicts, especially, in recent times, a sharpening animosity between officials and ordinary people.

As these conflicts and crises grow ever more intense, and as the ruling elite continues with impunity to crush and to strip away the rights of citizens to freedom, to property, and to the pursuit of happiness, we see the powerless in our society—the vulnerable groups, the people who have been suppressed and monitored, who have suffered cruelty and even torture, and who have had no adequate avenues for their protests, no courts to hear their pleas—becoming more militant and raising the possibility of a violent conflict of disastrous proportions. The decline of the current system has reached the point where change is no longer optional.

II. Our Fundamental Principles

This is a historic moment for China, and our future hangs in the balance. In reviewing the political modernization process of the past hundred years or more, we reiterate and endorse basic universal values as follows:

Freedom. Freedom is at the core of universal human values. Freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, freedom of association, freedom in where to live, and the freedoms to strike, to demonstrate, and to protest, among others, are the forms that freedom takes. Without freedom, China will always remain far from civilized ideals.

Human rights. Human rights are not bestowed by a state. Every person is born with inherent rights to dignity and freedom. The government exists for the protection of the human rights of its citizens. The exercise of state power must be authorized by the people. The succession of political disasters in China’s recent history is a direct consequence of the ruling regime’s disregard for human rights.

Equality. The integrity, dignity, and freedom of every person—regardless of social station, occupation, sex, economic condition, ethnicity, skin color, religion, or political belief—are the same as those of any other. Principles of equality before the law and equality of social, economic, cultural, civil, and political rights must be upheld.

Republicanism. Republicanism, which holds that power should be balanced among different branches of government and competing interests should be served, resembles the traditional Chinese political ideal of “fairness in all under heaven.” It allows different interest groups and social assemblies, and people with a variety of cultures and beliefs, to exercise democratic self-government and to deliberate in order to reach peaceful resolution of public questions on a basis of equal access to government and free and fair competition.

Democracy. The most fundamental principles of democracy are that the people are sovereign and the people select their government. Democracy has these characteristics: (1) Political power begins with the people and the legitimacy of a regime derives from the people. (2) Political power is exercised through choices that the people make. (3) The holders of major official posts in government at all levels are determined through periodic competitive elections. (4) While honoring the will of the majority, the fundamental dignity, freedom, and human rights of minorities are protected. In short, democracy is a modern means for achieving government truly “of the people, by the people, and for the people.”

Constitutional rule. Constitutional rule is rule through a legal system and legal regulations to implement principles that are spelled out in a constitution. It means protecting the freedom and the rights of citizens, limiting and defining the scope of legitimate government power, and providing the administrative apparatus necessary to serve these ends.

III. What We Advocate

Authoritarianism is in general decline throughout the world; in China, too, the era of emperors and overlords is on the way out. The time is arriving everywhere for citizens to be masters of states. For China the path that leads out of our current predicament is to divest ourselves of the authoritarian notion of reliance on an “enlightened overlord” or an “honest official” and to turn instead toward a system of liberties, democracy, and the rule of law, and toward fostering the consciousness of modern citizens who see rights as fundamental and participation as a duty. Accordingly, and in a spirit of this duty as responsible and constructive citizens, we offer the following recommendations on national governance, citizens’ rights, and social development:

1. A New Constitution. We should recast our present constitution, rescinding its provisions that contradict the principle that sovereignty resides with the people and turning it into a document that genuinely guarantees human rights, authorizes the exercise of public power, and serves as the legal underpinning of China’s democratization. The constitution must be the highest law in the land, beyond violation by any individual, group, or political party.

2. Separation of powers. We should construct a modern government in which the separation of legislative, judicial, and executive power is guaranteed. We need an Administrative Law that defines the scope of government responsibility and prevents abuse of administrative power. Government should be responsible to taxpayers. Division of power between provincial governments and the central government should adhere to the principle that central powers are only those specifically granted by the constitution and all other powers belong to the local governments.

3. Legislative democracy. Members of legislative bodies at all levels should be chosen by direct election, and legislative democracy should observe just and impartial principles.

4. An Independent Judiciary. The rule of law must be above the interests of any particular political party and judges must be independent. We need to establish a constitutional supreme court and institute procedures for constitutional review. As soon as possible, we should abolish all of the Committees on Political and Legal Affairs that now allow Communist Party officials at every level to decide politically-sensitive cases in advance and out of court. We should strictly forbid the use of public offices for private purposes.

5. Public Control of Public Servants. The military should be made answerable to the national government, not to a political party, and should be made more professional. Military personnel should swear allegiance to the constitution and remain nonpartisan. Political party organizations shall be prohibited in the military. All public officials including police should serve as nonpartisans, and the current practice of favoring one political party in the hiring of public servants must end.

6. Guarantee of Human Rights. There shall be strict guarantees of human rights and respect for human dignity. There should be a Human Rights Committee, responsible to the highest legislative body, that will prevent the government from abusing public power in violation of human rights. A democratic and constitutional China especially must guarantee the personal freedom of citizens. No one shall suffer illegal arrest, detention, arraignment, interrogation, or punishment. The system of “Reeducation through Labor” must be abolished.

7. Election of Public Officials. There shall be a comprehensive system of democratic elections based on “one person, one vote.” The direct election of administrative heads at the levels of county, city, province, and nation should be systematically implemented. The rights to hold periodic free elections and to participate in them as a citizen are inalienable.

8. Rural–Urban Equality. The two-tier household registry system must be abolished. This system favors urban residents and harms rural residents. We should establish instead a system that gives every citizen the same constitutional rights and the same freedom to choose where to live.

9. Freedom to Form Groups. The right of citizens to form groups must be guaranteed. The current system for registering nongovernmental groups, which requires a group to be “approved,” should be replaced by a system in which a group simply registers itself. The formation of political parties should be governed by the constitution and the laws, which means that we must abolish the special privilege of one party to monopolize power and must guarantee principles of free and fair competition among political parties.

10. Freedom to Assemble. The constitution provides that peaceful assembly, demonstration, protest, and freedom of expression are fundamental rights of a citizen. The ruling party and the government must not be permitted to subject these to illegal interference or unconstitutional obstruction.

11. Freedom of Expression. We should make freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and academic freedom universal, thereby guaranteeing that citizens can be informed and can exercise their right of political supervision. These freedoms should be upheld by a Press Law that abolishes political restrictions on the press. The provision in the current Criminal Law that refers to “the crime of incitement to subvert state power” must be abolished. We should end the practice of viewing words as crimes.

12. Freedom of Religion. We must guarantee freedom of religion and belief and institute a separation of religion and state. There must be no governmental interference in peaceful religious activities. We should abolish any laws, regulations, or local rules that limit or suppress the religious freedom of citizens. We should abolish the current system that requires religious groups (and their places of worship) to get official approval in advance and substitute for it a system in which registry is optional and, for those who choose to register, automatic.

13. Civic Education. In our schools we should abolish political curriculums and examinations that are designed to indoctrinate students in state ideology and to instill support for the rule of one party. We should replace them with civic education that advances universal values and citizens’ rights, fosters civic consciousness, and promotes civic virtues that serve society.

14. Protection of Private Property. We should establish and protect the right to private property and promote an economic system of free and fair markets. We should do away with government monopolies in commerce and industry and guarantee the freedom to start new enterprises. We should establish a Committee on State-Owned Property, reporting to the national legislature, that will monitor the transfer of state-owned enterprises to private ownership in a fair, competitive, and orderly manner. We should institute a land reform that promotes private ownership of land, guarantees the right to buy and sell land, and allows the true value of private property to be adequately reflected in the market.

15. Financial and Tax Reform. We should establish a democratically regulated and accountable system of public finance that ensures the protection of taxpayer rights and that operates through legal procedures. We need a system by which public revenues that belong to a certain level of government—central, provincial, county or local—are controlled at that level. We need major tax reform that will abolish any unfair taxes, simplify the tax system, and spread the tax burden fairly. Government officials should not be able to raise taxes, or institute new ones, without public deliberation and the approval of a democratic assembly. We should reform the ownership system in order to encourage competition among a wider variety of market participants.

16. Social Security. We should establish a fair and adequate social security system that covers all citizens and ensures basic access to education, health care, retirement security, and employment.

17. Protection of the Environment. We need to protect the natural environment and to promote development in a way that is sustainable and responsible to our descendents and to the rest of humanity. This means insisting that the state and its officials at all levels not only do what they must do to achieve these goals, but also accept the supervision and participation of non-governmental organizations.

18. A Federated Republic. A democratic China should seek to act as a responsible major power contributing toward peace and development in the Asian Pacific region by approaching others in a spirit of equality and fairness. In Hong Kong and Macao, we should support the freedoms that already exist. With respect to Taiwan, we should declare our commitment to the principles of freedom and democracy and then, negotiating as equals, and ready to compromise, seek a formula for peaceful unification. We should approach disputes in the national-minority areas of China with an open mind, seeking ways to find a workable framework within which all ethnic and religious groups can flourish. We should aim ultimately at a federation of democratic communities of China.

19. Truth in Reconciliation. We should restore the reputations of all people, including their family members, who suffered political stigma in the political campaigns of the past or who have been labeled as criminals because of their thought, speech, or faith. The state should pay reparations to these people. All political prisoners and prisoners of conscience must be released. There should be a Truth Investigation Commission charged with finding the facts about past injustices and atrocities, determining responsibility for them, upholding justice, and, on these bases, seeking social reconciliation.

China, as a major nation of the world, as one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, and as a member of the UN Council on Human Rights, should be contributing to peace for humankind and progress toward human rights. Unfortunately, we stand today as the only country among the major nations that remains mired in authoritarian politics. Our political system continues to produce human rights disasters and social crises, thereby not only constricting China’s own development but also limiting the progress of all of human civilization. This must change, truly it must. The democratization of Chinese politics can be put off no longer.

Accordingly, we dare to put civic spirit into practice by announcing Charter 08. We hope that our fellow citizens who feel a similar sense of crisis, responsibility, and mission, whether they are inside the government or not, and regardless of their social status, will set aside small differences to embrace the broad goals of this citizens’ movement. Together we can work for major changes in Chinese society and for the rapid establishment of a free, democratic, and constitutional country. We can bring to reality the goals and ideals that our people have incessantly been seeking for more than a hundred years, and can bring a brilliant new chapter to Chinese civilization.

 

Chinese (中文) Version:

1993年11月14日,我和李海、周国强、刘念春、宋书元、沙裕光、陈旅、钱玉民、杨周(何德普负责在外面观察当局的反应以便发生紧急情况时向国际传媒通报故没有进入现场没能当场签署)八位同仁在北京公布了《和平宪章》。
十五年后,也就是2008年12月8日,先期入狱的刘晓波和300余人在北京公布了《零八宪章》。

《和平宪章》和《零八宪章》的基本精神一脉相承,那就是:高扬普世价值,主张人权至上,以实现宪政民主制为宗旨。
有这样几个基本点,它们之间的一切分歧都是枝节问题。
可以说,八百年来,人类历史上出现的所有宪章都是朝这个方向走的,无论是开以民权限制君权先河的13世纪英国的《大宪章》,抑或是为普罗大众争取选举权的19世纪英国的《人民宪章》,还是要求按赫尔辛基条约保障人权的1977年捷克的《七七宪章》,更广泛地说,包括1776年美国的《独立宣言》和1789年法国的《人权宣言》,都是在不同程度上为被统治者争取制约统治者的权利,并且归根结底是为社会大众争取平等的权利和自由。
从这种角度说,我作为先走了一步的当代中国民运尖兵,无条件的拥护《零八宪章》,就像我无条件的拥护以上两个宣言和那些宪章的基本精神一样。

可想而知,一切中国和外国的、过去和未来的高扬普世价值、主张人权至上的宣言和宪章都是特定历史的产物,都会有其局限性,而且,越往历史深处追寻越是如此。
但是另一方面,反过来说,越往历史深处追寻就越具有创造性,其意义就越重大,就像远古时代发明生火对人类社会进步的价值必然大于近人发明蒸汽机一样,因为越是早出的思想观念越具有开拓意义,对后世的影响就越大。

当然具体情况还要具体分析, 说到《和平宪章》,由于特定的艰难条件,它的历史作用主要是打破六四镇压的血腥恐怖,为中国民主运动的再掀高潮铺路,同时作为中国大陆本土的第一个民运纲领性文献为之指明了方向,就它本身的作用而论,并没有起到形成共识、凝聚力量、开创良性互动局面的作用。
在这个方面,《零八宪章》的工作要比《和平宪章》更有成效。

虽然《和平宪章》和《零八宪章》的基本精神一脉相存,两个文本差别却很大。概括的说,这种文本差别主要表现在三个方面:
第一, 前者非常简约,并且主要是就事论事,没有对历史和理论做多少说明,相反,后者相对全面的回顾了近代历史,并且对普世价值的核心概念作了逐条解说。
第二, 前者重点放在和平转型上,后者重点放在对转型结果的诉求上。
第三, 前者注重的是民主转型的启动操作,后者注重的是宪政民主的建构本身。

两个文本为什么会有这些差别?
这既是客观原因所致,也是起草人主体观念、社会经历和文化背景差异的结果,下面,就来对两个宪章的异同进行和一些说明和比较。

首先,两个文本出台的客观环境完全不一样。
8964之后,整个中国笼罩在血雨腥风之中,九州大地夜气如磐万马齐喑,任何政治异议活动都不复存在,几个有点声名的人借美国当局要向本国人民做点交代,发出了一点声音之后立即走为上计,国内还是一遍死寂。在这种情况下,作为一直在公开独立从事民主人权活动的民主墙斗士,本人根据长期的实践经验,首先以开展“反对北京申办奥运”活动来投石问路,试探当前公开开展民主人权活动的空间是否存在,取得一定成效后,就开始了正式运作。
1993年10月中旬,我开始了这一年的第五次北京之行,和原北京大学“学自联”外联部长李海、原北京“工自联”法律顾问周国强二人一起敲定了开展《和平宪章》活动的意向,随即开始寻找合作对象,并得到了刘念春、沙裕光、钱玉民、宋书元、陈旅、何德普等人的大力支持(上海的扬周是签署日由周国强请来的),此外,北京大学法学院的研究生王中秋明确表示参加,他的老师讲师袁红冰则和我作交易,要我先参加他的“劳工权利活动”,然后他再参加《和平宪章》活动。与此同时,我拜访了几十位著名的专家、学者、异议人士,由于对当局的恐惧,这些人大多数都谈虎色变,根本不愿与闻其事,只有个别学者表示了兴趣,但在当局发现蛛丝马迹加以施压的情况下,还是被迫放弃了从文字上加以修改的初衷(然而,这些人中的一部分十五年后签署了《零八宪章》)。

我还两次找了魏京生,第一次是由何德普开面包车和刘念春等人到魏家接了魏京生去宣武区达官营红居五巷,和沙裕光一起在他家附近的餐馆里谈,第二次和周国强王家琪(北京大学法学系研究生)与魏京生魏小涛在他家附近的阜成门烤鸭店,两次当面向他提出邀请,他的回答都是:“这种事当局一‘抵撸’一大串,再说调门也太低。”因此拒绝参加。11月14日出台的当天的第一次会议地点在魏家附近,我又派人找了魏京生,他还是拒绝了我们的邀请。
《和平宪章》出台前,我们还还专门对王丹进行了反复邀请,对他的邀请是由李海负责的,他的回答是:“老魏不去我也不去。”

这里尤其要专门一提的是,刘念春特地向我介绍了刘晓波的情况,说他虽然在64之后说了一些不妥的话,但现在精神状况已经在恢复,不妨去试探一下。这样,在北京城到处找人的过程中,我特地按刘念春提供的地址打开地图寻找“四道口”这个地名。谁知一查,地图上居然有三四个四道口,分别位于不同角落,想想根据介绍动员其出山的可能性实在不大,自己又面对着当局的围追堵截,随时可能遭到不测,就放弃了在全北京城四处寻找他的打算。
就这样,我这个《和平宪章》的起草人,和十五年后的《零八宪章》的名义起草人终于缘吝一面,虽然1996年刘晓波为“双十宣言”劳教时我曾给他的妻子刘霞打过慰问电话。

再从传播媒介上说,当时还没有互联网,没有个人电脑,甚至没有手机,连有线电话也不普及,所以社会动员必须以人对人一对一的进行为主,其难度之大可想而知!在这种情况下,想多联系一个人,就得花几天时间多找几个人,在当局已经警觉,到处对我实施守候抓捕的情况下,想进一步扩大签名范围难上加难不说,拖长了时间还可能胎死腹中。
所以,《和平宪章》是在当局极其残酷的镇压异议人士、全中国人都处于极度恐惧的情况下出台的,加上没有任何通信工具可资利用,也就根本没有向社会大范围扩散,广泛动员人们参与的可能性,此时,我们唯一能够借助的是国际传媒,当时美国之音等还没有受到干扰,虽然我们提前把文本交给了他们,但依靠他们传播这种方式只能在公开后运用,而公开后我第二天就被捕了。

至于《零八宪章》出台的2008年,整个形势已经完全不同。
仅仅是十五年的时间也使六四屠杀的恐惧效应早已消退,何况整个社会已经高度动员起来,在1998年的组党运动、1999年的法轮功运动的冲击下,所有的思想禁区已经打开,社会大众已经高度动员,社会精英顾忌越来越少。尤其是胡温上台之初,面对市场经济条件下由于财富膨胀分配不公导致社会矛盾积聚,官民冲突迅速激化,推行“新政”(这是过誉之词)成为必然选择。在这种背景下,不仅合法的维权运动如火如荼的开展起来,被当局视为非法的“群体性事件”每年也高达数万起,而且呈逐年上升的趋势,许多民众甚至走上了暴力抗争之路。
这样,举国上下敢于出面提出政治要求的人已经不计其数,现在的问题不是驱除恐惧,而是如何用有效方式把那些有民主政治诉求却被当局互相隔绝的社会大众凝聚起来,使其有机会看到我们的纲领性文献,从而表明自己的政治态度,并以各种方式联合起来。

与此同时,2008年的大众通讯工具已经从有线电话发展到无线电话、互联网和个人电脑,几乎一切人之间都可以进行一对一的即时交流,更不要说还形成了一对多众对众的公共交流平台,这样,民间既有的联系网络和大众传播媒介也为宪章的广泛传播提供了良好条件。
所以,《零八宪章》能够传播开来并获得社会的强烈共鸣,是和恐惧高压消退,社会已经普遍觉醒,以及全新公共传播媒介的普及分不开的。
应当说,以上情况主要是决定了两个宪章运动的组织、传播方面的不同。

决定组织、传播不同的因素还有重要一条。
那就是主要当事人主客观条件的差异。
以我和刘晓波的情况为例。
我是武汉人,在北京开展活动受到当局的高度注意和严密防控,而且不可能持久,在当局发现我要进行大规模的政治活动之后,就开始了在北京城全方位的搜查抓捕,因此,一个人月后我不能不尽快把《和平宪章》正式公布,否则就根本没有机会出台了(由此开始当局绝对不让我前往北京,几次为此在火车站拦下来)。
刘晓波虽是辽宁人,却因妻子刘霞的关系长住北京,在北京开展活动相对方便,可以长时间的从容进行前期准备工作,在当局不知不觉下和各方面的有识之士进行交流沟通讨论磋商。

另一方面,我只有小学文凭,却从1966年文革开始就关注政治,1970年就因日记文章和写书打成反革命从而卷入政治,是几十年一贯制的社会活动家,和中下层社会大众与异议人士关系密切,在知识分子和上层人物中缺乏影响力。
比我小五岁的刘晓波1980年代末作为博士和“文坛黑马”横空出世,89民运中以“天安门四君子”横切进入民运领域,因此他卷入政治的时间要比我晚二十年,主要借助从文坛获得的影响以及89民运的助力取得了从事民主运动的高端平台,由于和知识界有天然联系,在文化界艺术界和上层社会打开局面也就相对容易。
我和刘晓波的差别,基本上也是《和平宪章》和《零八宪章》的主要成员班底的差别,这里就不深说了

相应的,我们《和平宪章》人士的知识结构、社会经历、文化背景和《零八宪章》核心人士完全不同。
《和平宪章》人士中,文凭程度最高的是李海,他是北京大学哲学系研究生,其他人基本上没有高等文凭。与此同时,《和平宪章》人士个个都有非比寻常的社会政治活动实践经验:89民运中,李海是北京大学学生自治会对外联络部部长,刘念春是民主墙时代的民办刊物、朦胧派诗歌的摇篮《今天》的编辑,陈旅是民主墙时代的《人权同盟》的主要成员,沙裕光是民主墙时代的民办刊物《中华四五》的编辑,何德普是民主墙时代民办刊物《北京青年》的编辑,杨周是民主墙时代上海最活跃也最早被判刑的民主斗士,周国强也是民主墙时代的《今天》的编辑,并且是89民运中北京“工自联” 的法律顾问,钱玉民则是北京“工自联”的秘书长!所有这些人都有着很长的民主人权活动的实践经历,也几乎都为民主人权事业坐过牢受过迫害。
如果要对《和平宪章》签署人群体做一个最简单的概括,那就是——都是民主人权事业的社会活动家,有着丰富的实践活动经验,相对而言,整体文化素质较低,理论水平较低,我本人更只是一个小学生,这样,草写的宪章蓝本缺乏历史回顾和理论分析是很自然的。

《零八宪章》由于在社会上获得了广泛传播的机会,故上到知识界文化界艺术界,下到访民群众和普罗大众都有大量人员签名。但是,如果我掌握的情况不错的话,那么它的起草人则都是具有高等教育背景的知识分子。不仅刘晓波是博士,夏先生是北京大学教授,张先生是宪政学者,其他参与起草和发起的人也都具有很高的学历背景,从事的也都是知识性工作,由于他们所居地位相对较高,在民主人权活动第一线的公开斗争经验较少,缺乏开展民主人权活动的实践经历 ,因此对宪章的草写缺乏操作性考量,没有想一想自己提出来的东西当局有无理论上的可接受性,没有考虑以目前的力量对比自己拿出的宪章能否让当局狗咬刺猬无处下口。
说到这里,我们再来分析两个宪章的文本差异就比较容易理解了。

如前所述,《和平宪章》的特点是没有过多的进行历史回顾和理论阐述。
我为什么要这样做?
当然因为我给自己的定位是民主人权事业的实践活动家,我要做的是在目前的特定条件下推进中国的民主人权事业,启动民主化进程。
也因为在我看来,中国作为落在全世界最后面的大国面对的民主专制问题已经没有什么深刻的理论可言,一切已经在全世界人面前彰明较著,我不知道今日中国的政治理论有哪一点能够突破发达民主国家提供的理论范式,这不仅指欧美,也包括印度日本韩国菲律宾印度利西亚尤其是台湾,甚至包括许多非洲国家,在这种时代,草写这样一份文件其意义和《七七宪章》及此前的宪章完全不同,《七七宪章》也算在所谓社会主义国家有开创性(其实它和我们开展的民主墙运动基本同时),中国已经落在最后,无论草写一份理论上多么完善的宪章,也不过是重复举世皆知的陈词滥调,绝对不会有任何开创性可言。
在这种情况下,以一个《宪章》作为中国民主转型的纲领,主要不是一个理论武器问题,而是一个操作策略问题。
所以,如何草写一份从当前说当局在社会压力下可能接受,从长远说可以指导中国完成民主化转型任务的宪章,就是我撰写这份文件的基本指导思想。

须知,1997年和1998年当局才签署《经济社会文化权利公约》《公民权利和政治权利公约》,在宪法中加入“国家尊重和保障人权”字样更是几年之后的事情,1993年的当时,当局尚完全不承认人权原则,当然反对的调门也在降低。
应该说,把人权原则作为第一条要求提出来,在这种情况下就已经涵盖了民主世界的一切现代政治的理论精华,与此同时,当局即使一时不会认可,也没有理由高调反对,更不宜以此治罪,至于此后的各条各款,则都有强烈的针对性,都是国人普遍关心的重大问题,也都必然会在人权和正义基础上获得解决。我们把这些条款提出来,只要能在社会上 流布开来,就不难获得有利害关系的广大民众的热烈拥护和积极参与。

当然,这种操作性的宪章不可能面面俱到,这个问题如何解决?
讨论中我指出:这场宪章远动不是到沙漠中更不是到火星上去探险,而是到深林中去旅行,因此,我们没必要一切备足,面面俱到,相反要轻装上阵尽快出发,只要能撬动一个合法化运作的缝隙,其他要求可以随着形势的发展逐步提出。
民主世界公民可以做的一切我们都要做,但是,在当前的特定条件下,我们必须尽量降低要求,以求得合法化运作空间,中国的政治异议活动只要能合法开展,其他一切就可以顺理成章了。

为此,我特地在作为附件的意见书中强调,以后会随时根据需要发布新的文件,这就为该宪章的内容深化扩大留下了充分的余地。
这方面,还有一个策略考量是,古今中外,一切成功的政治运作,都是高度讲究策略,讲究斗争艺术的,无论何时,随时要审时度势,根据力量对比决定自己的政治态势,不宜一开始就把自己的政治诉求都表露出来。用《孙子兵法》的话说:“小敌之坚,大敌之擒也。”“敌则能战之,少则能逃之,不若则能避之”“知可以战与不可以战者胜”。用老子的话说:“图难乎,其易也,为大乎,其细也。”用孔子的话说:“暴虎冯河,死而无悔者,吾不与也,必也临事而惧,好谋而成者也。”从现实政治说,朱元璋曾接受“高筑墙广积粮缓称王”的建议,共产党对国民党、毛泽东对蒋介石的态度变化一直是由实力对比决定的。具体的说,绝对劣势下只能出哀兵。对民主人权事业来说,我们的力量只在于“讲理”,我们需要的是在全面专政下开拓出合法化运作的滩头阵地,否则什么都谈不上。所以,我不主张搞一个高调的、宏大的、强硬的纲领,而要搞得低调些、适中些、柔韧些,就这个时代的情况说,文字上不能叫当局抓到可判刑的字句,至于劳教,没有任何法律可循,因此不在考虑避免之列,果然,后来当局也的确只好把我抓去劳教了两年。

《零八宪章》的做法和考量我不去评价和推测,只指出人所共见的是它把大量篇幅用于新时代的“宏大叙事”
概括的说,《零八宪章》的第一部分“前言”是结合普世价值的经典阐释回顾中国政治现代化转型的百年历史,第二部分“我们的基本理念”是对普世价值的核心概念进行逐条阐释,第三部分“我们的基本主张”是对转型结果的原则概括,第四部分“结语”是对现实的焦虑和致力转型的决心。
可以说,《零八宪章》是“政治正确”的典范,是当今世界普世价值普及的教科书。

不过,它似乎完全无视自己政治对手的存在,完全没有考虑以什么步骤去达到自己的目的,完全没有顾及操作性问题,完全没有想到怎么获取合法的滩头阵地。
儒学经典《大学》有云:“物有本末,事有始终,知所先后,则近道也”,中国近代史上,“戊戌变法”的一大教训,就是不考虑现实政治生态的可承受性,不考虑大国转型必须注意历史进步有其不可跨越的阶段性,不考虑变法过程的可控性,在短短近百日里拿出那么多法律来推行,虽说失败是顽固派发动政变所致,难道和康有为志大才疏没有政治运作能力无关吗?
政治运作不是做学问,不能光考虑理论上的完整性、系统性、纯洁性,而是和对手博弈,必须充分考虑对手的反应,还要根据形势决定先说什么,后说什么,此时此地只能说什么,怎样说才有效益,最重要的是,尤其要弄清楚眼前不能说什么!

关于《零八宪章》,别的方面我不做具体评价,只在这里指出一点,其第三部分第18条在这里出现是否必不可少?
让我们来看看它是怎么说的:
“18、联邦共和:以平等、公正的态度参与维持地区和平与发展,塑造一个负责任的大国形象。维护香港、澳门的自由制度。在自由民主的前提下,通过平等谈判与 合作互动的方式寻求海峡两岸和解方案。以大智慧探索各民族共同繁荣的可能途径和制度设计,在民主宪政的架构下建立中华联邦共和国。”

其实在《和平宪章》中也有类似类容:
“第七、我们呼吁台湾海峡两岸的政府立刻开始直接的对等谈判。我们相信中华民族的凝聚力足以使台湾与大陆和平统一。因此,我们呼吁大陆当局正式放弃武力解决问题的主张,并以同等态度对待台湾的国民党、民进党以及其他政党,在条件成熟时,应当欢迎台湾政党到大陆发展。我们也呼吁台湾朝野各界届时能对等地欢迎包括共产党在内的大陆政党到台湾发展,从而最终完成台湾海峡两岸的社会政治整合。我们也呼吁台湾民进党放弃“台独”主张,积极致力于包括大陆、台湾、港澳在内的全中国民主进步事业。
第八、我们呼吁大陆政府充分尊重香港和澳门人民的自治权利,以主权归中央,治权归地方为原则处理港澳回归祖国后的问题,充分尊重当地人民对社会、政治、经济制度与生活方式的选择。
第九、我们呼吁全国各族人民共同维护中华民族大团结,同时呼吁政府按现代国际标准处理各种少数民族问题,充分尊重各少数民族的民族自决权,放弃以暴力维持大一统的封建观念。”

显然,《零八宪章》是简明扼要,高屋建瓴,大气磅礴。
《和平宪章》则啰啰嗦嗦,低三下四,对“建立联邦制”的要求只是弦外之音,千呼万唤不出来。
联邦制对中国港澳台和少数民族问题的解决当是一个不容回避的办法,但是,目前这个条件下,在这么个纲领性文献中提出来,就涉及一个国体和政体问题。

那么,在民间民主力量没有站稳脚跟之前就提出这样的要求,是否有授人以柄之嫌?是否必然会使当局不给我们以立足之地?
梁启超早已指出,欧洲的民主化是一波波的国民运动造就的,国民运动的要求必须是当局目前可能接受的,提出其绝对不可以接受的要求就等于最后通碟,这种情况下,当局只会以强力镇压,决不会让步。
所以,如果我们意图以和平理性非暴力的方式推进民主化进程,提要求就不能不考虑民主力量自己目前的实力状况、集结状况、合法状况,不能不考虑当局的可接受性。

至于民主力量站住脚了,合法化了,态度可以强硬起来,要求可以不断提高,这是另一码事。就是到那时候,也必须注意分寸,因为彼时当局虽不能抓我们,不能判我们徒刑,也还有个要价太高后人家买不买账,能否达到我们的预期目的问题!
说白了,和平理性非暴力的民主运动,就是一个根据目前的形势和民主力量的实力,和政府当局讨价还价的问题,就是一个虽然不断提高价码但也不断和当局妥协的问题。

我早已把《和平宪章》的原则概括为十六个字:“全民和解,人权为本,良性互动,和平转型。”
全民和解当然首先是官民和解,谈判妥协是和解的基本途径,而我们谈和解不是没有原则的,这个原则就是人权至上,就是要保护包括执政党和政府的一切官僚在内的所有人的人权,也理解和尊重其所有的合理合法的以及由历史造成的特殊的权益和利益,只有在这种基础上,才可能谈和平转型。
在这个框架下,对话、谈判、妥协就成为官民互动的基本特征。
如果我们一开始就把改变国体、政体的要求提出来,当局可能和我们对话吗?可能和我们谈判吗?这样的问题又可能妥协吗?

现在我们来看第二点。
《和平宪章》和《零八宪章》的最大区别,就在于后者只有一个最高价值,那就是“宪章”,也是所追求的结果,这是它从名称上完全承袭《七七宪章》的结果,一个产生于1977年,一个产生于2008年。
《和平宪章》则不同,它有两个价值,中心价值当然也是宪章,即要求回归世界文明主流,奉行人权至上理念,实行宪政民主制,但是在此之外,它还有一个限定词“和平”,也就是强调再以宪政为目的的同时,还要求以和平过渡为原则,也就是不仅要结果正义,而且要过程正义,要求目的和手段相统一,不能为了目的不择手段。
从《和平宪章》问世到今天已经过去了十八年,这十八年里我坐了十四年牢,有人问我改变了和平转型的主张没有,我觉得这是一个没有道理的问题,为了中国人民的最高利益,也因为对当代中国社会进步规律的把握,我认为和平转型是唯一出路,也是必然选择。为此有人居然说我秦永敏不止该只坐二十几年牢,而且应该关两百年!说这话的人对中共政权的寿命太乐观了,显然,这是典型的共产党思维——苦大仇深必然苗红根正,似乎受迫害越多就越主张暴力革命。应该承认,二者的确有正相关,越是无知者越如此,正如毛泽东所说“压迫越深反抗越大”,与此同时,根据法国大革命中产生的《人权宣言》等最重要的人权文献,人民也有反抗暴政推翻政府的权利。

但是,我要指出几点
第一, 从当前说,中共已经掌握了控制国家的超级能力,它的庞大国家机器通过两种手段足以镇压一切和任何暴力反抗的图谋。首先,它的国情监控系统足以查明任何十几个几十个人以上的暴力反抗图谋,所以,规模小了根本不足以撼动中共统治,一切稍有规模的武装反抗中共统治的企图则都不可能不在早期准备中被当局侦破,其次,中国早已不是民众可以“斩木为兵揭竿为旗”既能足以和当局的长矛大刀抗衡并取得胜利的时代,国家暴力足以轻而易举的镇压一切民众的暴力反抗,并且将其真正从肉体上“消灭在萌芽状况”。从这种情况来看,一切暴力革命、武装反抗推翻中共统治的做法都是自寻死路愚不可及。

第二, 中国已经不是二十世纪上半叶的中国,那时中国刚开始进入工业革命时代,大批失地农民成了中共煽动暴力夺取政权的最好愚弄对象,赤贫农民也还和几千年王朝循环时期的农民一样,反正没饭吃,狠下一条心,要么死了拉倒,要么打进京城坐江山。今日中国的社会大众包括农民接受了中共利用大众尤其是农民打江山,打下江山加倍欺压大众和农民的教训,也因为市场经济发展使大多数人有了一点财产,就都希望守着自己的财产过日子,通过自己的劳动一点点的改善生活,不会再受革命家的蛊惑去为成功之将当万具枯骨,还因为这个时代已经成了人人都可以娱乐至死的时代,再穷的人也可以守着个电视机影碟机看个不停,也没有多少人有衣食之虞,故已经没有几个人会铤而走险。总之,凡是在中国大陆的人都清楚,今日中国并不存在能够发动起来进行暴力革命的社会大众

第三, 当然,今天确实有不少聪明人在煽动暴力革命,却绝不担心自己性命难保,因为他们都在国外煽动国内的人这么做,或者在国内躲在无人得知的地方匿名在互联网之类的地方煽动别人这么做,他们惯于让别人去冒风险, 让别人去丧命,他们自己是绝不会在中国大陆本土公开从事他们所号召的暴力革命的。前段时间闹得沸沸扬扬的“革命”鼓噪中,我就亲历了这样一件事:国外某个激进团体派人在网上动员我发动人们这么做的同时,他人在海外尚且还怕我看见了真面目,视屏对话中居然还要把自己藏起来!这么做的人还不聪明至极么?让国内的人去送死,他们是绝对安全的,但这么做的结果能达到他们的“伟大革命目标”?所以,对这些煽动暴力革命的人我要说,如果你在国外,请你回来搞,如果你在国内,请你公开搞,如果你煽动别人,请你亲自搞!几十年来我坚持民主人权活动的同时坚持“和平、理性、非暴力”,并且一直首当其冲身体力行,希望那些煽动搞暴力革命的人也如我知行合一,当尖兵滚地雷始终冲在最前面。

第四, 况且历史的教训早已告诉我们,暴力夺权者必然暴力掌权,绝不会给国家社会带来民主自由,相反,历史的经验充分证明,自由是一波一波的国民运动争得的,民主是在选举制度的实施中一步步发展成熟的,绝不是暴力革命革出来的,暴力革命在最好的情况下也只是赶走了独裁者,从而为建立民主自由的社会开辟道路,更多的则是被野心家利用,是社会在流血漂杵之后还是无法迅速建立民主制度。

第五, 从我们中国的国家、社会、大众的根本利益来说,也只有和平转型是唯一选择。和平转型对国家、社会、大众的利益损害最小,这是就客观效果说;人民不会起来暴力革命,只会起来和平表达意愿,这是从原因上说。对当局而言,暴力革命意味着他们的毁灭,因此只会不计代价的镇压,和平转型以承认他们的许多既得利益为前提,在一定条件下,也就是在民众压力够大,反对派组织够强,同时做法也够温和理性的情况下,当局是完全可以接受的。关于这一点,就涉及到“转型正义”。正义是让一切人随时随地得其所应得,转型正义就是在转型过程中随时随地确保统治者方面的人身财产权利不受侵犯,对其过去在特定历史条件下的罪恶,可以清查,但要赦免——这就是“第一次宽恕”。也就是说,为了和平转型,必须对统治者进行“赎买”,用确保他们的部分特权,同等保障他们的全部人权,来逐步交换他们所掌握的统治权。

第六, 反对和平转型原则的人第一条理由是中共当局犯下了那么多反人类罪,至今还在无恶不作,因此中国没有任何和平转型的希望。在我看来,说中共比德国法西斯还坏证据充分,说中国不能和平转型则毫无道理。中共最残酷的罪行是毛泽东仿效苏联犯下的,邓小平“复辟资本主义”以后一代代又犯了不少反人类罪,但是,毕竟一代比一代要理性一点,总体上说做的孽少一点,再加上他们已经从暴力夺权意识形态至上的军事强人换成了锦衣玉食的天潢贵胄和谨小慎微的技术官僚,其现实利益已经向金钱至上利益至上转化,意识形态是不能谈判不能分割的,所以以前的确无法指望其接受普世价值,现在的基本情况已经完全不同,金钱至上意味着利益至上,而利益是可以切割的。这样,就像台湾的民主转型和对“228”事件的认罪只能发生在蒋氏父子死后一样,到有重大血债的死得差不多了以后,新的统治者在全民压力下被迫和平转型是必然的,因为那时候他们确保既得利益的办法将不再是把持保不住的绝对权力,在能确保其生命财产安全的前提下,当然是顺应历史潮流。

另外,要强调,和平转型的基点绝不是当局开皇恩大赐,而是全民的觉醒和民主人权力量的强大。
和平转型是民主人权力量的理性诉求,是民运领袖作为历史创造者必须坚持的“为万世开太平”的胸怀气度,这并不是说,有了这种指导思想,转型过程中就绝对不会发生暴力,《和平宪章》指出,转型不可避免,区别只在于暴力和非暴力,非暴力转型的一个前提就是当局必须有足够的理性。
这就是说,统治者越理性,转型就越和平,统治者越不理性,转型的暴力性就越强,这是被历史充分证明了的定则。今年以来阿拉伯世界的民主变命风潮再次印证了这一点,突尼斯相对平和,埃及也还不太爆烈,绝世狂人独裁暴君统治的利比亚则以屠杀导致内战,它怎么可能不被该国人民彻底清算?

此外,无论民主人权力量多么理性,由于统治者作恶太多,在和平转型过程中出现一定数量的和局部的暴力事件必不可免。尤其是中国这样一个大国,本来情况就高度复杂,再加上地方政府黑社会化,多年来激起的民变数量直线上升,一年达十几万起,迄今已发生几十起官逼民反导致民众捣毁县市政府的重大事件,因此转型中没有暴力事件相伴是天方夜谭。对此,我们的原则第一是完全理解但坚决反对,第二要求妥善处理,防止事态恶化,第三,要求各方克制,控制事态发展,全力避免形成全局性及全国性的暴力冲突。

当然我们要大力强调,当局对防止形成全国性暴力事件暴力对抗负有不可推卸的责任,毫无疑问,局面恶化到这种地步只能是当局维持专制高压所致,它也必须对此负完全责任。
但是,,就和平转型这个历史性课题而言,作为为万世开太平的历史创造者,民主阵营的领袖和核心集团必须未雨绸缪,拿出切实可行的方案来。

与此同时,解铃还须系铃人,当局更必须拿出令人信服的和平转型诚意来。
这两个方面是不可偏废的。
《和平宪章》和《零八宪章》对转型过程和转型正义上的重视程度不啻天壤的区别,导致了二者的第三个差别,那就是《和平宪章》重点谈转型的启动操作,《零八宪章》重点谈宪政民主的建构。
《和平宪章》只提出了“实行多元化民主政治”的基本主张,并且要求在大量进行各种双边和多边会谈的基础上举行圆桌会议,因此,对未来的国体和政体未置一词,也就乏善可陈,认为先进民主国家已经有足够多的经验可资借鉴,具体决定则是全民和解过程中圆桌会议讨论并交由全民公决的事情,就像中共当局没有资格单独决定一样——任何离开全民公决单独决定的宪政章程都必然缺乏权威性,因而不可能不留下无穷后患。

《零八宪章》把当代民主国家宪政制度的基本原则一一罗列出来,可以说洋洋大观完整系统。
不过,对其排列方式在下颇有疑问。
本人专门研究过人权观念的成长和发展,对人类历史上各种权利的出现作了排列研究,发现了这么一些要点:
人权是抽象的原则性的,是政治概念,它的对象包括一切人,涵盖包括一切已有的和未来可能有的即潜在的权利,对人类来说它是一个周延性概念。这就决定了人权观念一问世就有极其强大的生命力,成为一切被压迫者争取平等权利的强大的思想武器。人权观念是欧洲启蒙运动时期产生的,或者说是信基督教的白皮肤的欧洲男人发明的。随后其他宗教的人,美洲的黑皮肤人、亚洲的黄皮肤人、全世界的女人也纷纷接过来。
经过了几百年时间,到联合国《世界人权宣言》问世之时,它就成了这样一个经典表述:

“第一条
人人生而自由,在尊严和权利上一律平等。他们赋有理性和良心,并应以兄弟关系的精神相对待。
第二条
人人有资格享有本宣言所载的一切权利和自由,不分种族、肤色、性别、语言、宗教、政治或其他见解、国籍或社会出身、财产、出生或其他身分等任何区别。
并且不得因一人所属的国家或领土的政治的、行政的或者国际的地位之不同而有所区别,无论该领土是独立领土、托管领土、非自治领土或者处于其他任何主权受限制的情况之下。”

但是,联合国的规定是一码事,现实又是一码事,其实,它对世界各国只是一种软约束(当然今天的欧盟除外,由于它的先进发达成熟,和《世界人权宣言》相应的《欧洲人权公约》在欧盟范围内已是硬约束,高于所有成员国的法律)。
原因在于,和人权不同,权利是法律概念。法律不规定,该法律系统下辖的民众就肯定没有相应的权利。法律规定了以后,则成了字面上的东西,是否能兑现,也不是绝对的。只有在全民出面来运用那些权利,并且以强大的压力迫使当局兑现的情况下,才能成为社会生活的直接现实。

所以,权利首先必须写进法律,这是使它从形式上获得认可的一环,也是使它得以实行的必要条件。
与此同时,字面上的法定权利并不是民众拥有该项权利的充分条件,这种充分条件是:从法律上拥有该权利的一切人在社会上行动起来,坚决勇敢顽强持续的维护它们、捍卫它们、运用它们。

与此同时,在人类历史上,人权观念的普及是和各项权利的逐步制定和实施相应的,也就是说,权利不是一股脑儿产生的,而是有个逐项被各国的先贤们想到、提出、立法、实施的过程,而且,越往早去,产生和提出越难,每项权利提出的间隔越大。
更重要的是,它们不是哪一个国家的哪一个先贤完整系统的提出的,而是许多不同的国家的人在不同时代,根据本国当前的社会生活需要,在其他国家的人已经提出的其他的权利的基础上一个个增添出来的。
这就是为什么梁启超说欧洲的民主自由是一波一波的国民运动带来的,国民运动可以断续,但要持续的原因。
这里,我们首先要感谢的是世界近代史上的第一个现代共和国,由今天的荷兰一带的市民建立的尼德兰共和国,它于1581年发布了近代人类历史上第一个有关权利的法令,宣布言论自由权和男子的私有财产权受法律保护。
可以说,这个最早最简单的权利法令也是最英明的权利法令,因为私有财产权是一切社会和经济权利的基础,没有私有财产权公民在社会生活中就没有立足之地,而言论自由权又是一切公民权利和政治权利的前提,“口将言而嗫嚅”的社会里有何公民权利可言?又如何去过问政治?
说到这里不能不遗憾的指出,中共政权建立后迄今为此不仅从事实上完全剥夺了中国人民的言论自由权(言论自由度虽然一直在扩大),而且剥夺私有财产权半个世纪后迄今为止也没有给中国人民以完全的私有财产权——没有土地私有权,物权法就是一个跛足法律。

近百年以后,也就是1776年,美国诞生后,人类才第一次有了“有财产的白人男子在全国选举中的投票权”!
再从美国来看,其各项权利也有一个漫长的产生、制定过程。
由于一开始其他法律承袭了英国的,这样,在1795年才出台了以下三项法律:
1 白人男子的私有财产权
2 言论自由权
3 信仰自由权
至于已婚妇女的私有财产权,则迟滞到1905年才出台,
妇女的投票权,迟滞到1921年出台,
所有民族和种族在全国选举中的投票权直到1970年才出台!

应当说明,社会权利概念到是当时最专制的德国在俾斯麦统治下搞“三部大法安天下”于1883年出台的,其制定的第一种社会权利是工人工伤补偿方面的,相应的的法律美国则到1912年才制定。
反观中国,民国时代就几乎制定出了当时几乎所有先进家所有的权利法律,但大多数并没有落实。
至于中共政权成立之后,更将包括私有财产权和言论自由权在内的一切权利剥夺殆尽,与此同时,为了欺世盗名宪法则从形式上始终保留言论自由权。

所以,我们今天面临的现实是:必须把欧美发达国家自从1581年以来在四百多年里头陆续创化出来、也几乎为中华人民共和国宪法统统规定了,但却被中共当局统统剥夺了的所有权利都讨回来。
另一方面,无数事实告诉我们,权利的实现不可能是一个平面,不可能起步走,不可能没有一个先后顺序,有些权利必须先行,有些权利不能不缓一步,无论我们怎么要求当局全部归还,在现实生活中我们还是要考虑哪些项目必须优先必须靠前,那些项目只能后延只能等待条件具备。
这一点,正是《大学》教导我们的“物有本末,事有始终,知所先后,则近道也”,也就是《和平宪章》强调可操作性的原因。
就是说:《和平宪章》提到的方案未必是对的,更不会是最佳的,但是,中国的民主化进程,和设计宪政民主制度的建构,必须有一个科学合理的次序方案,这一点是不容质疑的。

那么,中国民主化进程所需的最基本顺序是什么?
15年过去,《和平宪章》当年的主张不一定适用,要求可能太低了一点,那时主要致力要求言论出版结社三项权利,而建议将游行集会示威暂缓,现在则当然要求全面兑现公民权利!
但是,政治权利方面还是应该有一个逐步渐进的过程。
比方说,在没有进行过基层选举、没有自由政党, 或者基层选举还没有坚实的基础、自由政党还没有充分运作的情况下,能够搞好全国领导人和国会的选举吗?
在这种情况下,推动中国民主化进程的领军人物,和中国民主制度的设计者,是否应该“把马克思主义的普遍真理和中国革命的具体实践相结合”?是否应该考虑如何按照客观需要和可能科学的有效地按部就班的推进民主化进程?是否应该阐明中国宪政民主制度建构的程序和步骤?
固然,当局的阻碍使其不可能没有很多变数,但是,当局的作用又为什么不是这个设计蓝图中周密考虑过的一个因素呢?

这就要求我们充分意识到:
第一,中国的宪政民主和当前的制度之间应该没有一条不可逾越的鸿沟,就是有,也需要我们在二者之间架起一道坚实的桥梁。
第二,中共当局则不仅是我们的对手,也应该是我们共建宪政的因素,即使它目前不是,我们也必须把它变成共建宪政的因素
第三,无论我们怎么对中共暴政深恶痛觉,中共本身还是代表百分之几的中国人,在宪政中国他们必将是多元化政治力量中的一员,这股政治势力即使会在几十年后消亡,也应该是一个民主生态下的自然历史过程,而不能用违反人权原则的方法强行驱散,何况它们今天仍然是执政党,它们仍然垄断着国家政权,在这种情况下,我们草拟中国走向民主化的大纲,似乎没法不把中共当局作为博弈对象,不能不把它作为一个共建宪政民主的一个有着巨大变数的复杂因素考虑进去。
无论是非对错好坏优劣,这,或许就是《和平宪章》和《零八宪章》的不同之处。

2011.7.8

附:和平宪章(草案)

(十几年来,大陆上的经济体制发生了巨大变化,对此我们深表赞赏 。然而,正如当代世界历定事实已充分表明的,市场经济的迅猛发展必然要求实行多元化的民主政治。鉴于当前世界结束冷战,走向新秩序,鉴于所有中国人都关注中国未来的和平发展,我们特提出本宪章。)

古今中外政治制度转型的各种先例,使我们不能不对中国下阶段的历史进程忧心忡忡。既然多元化民主政治是不可阻挡的历史必然,那么,我们不能不问:这一进程在中国究竟将以和平方式还是以非和平方式进行?
我们深信,中国大陆政府当局中,有历史洞察力的人士也同样认识到了上述问题及其迫切性,因此,历史的经验教训,尤其是前苏联和东欧正反两方面的先例,完全足以使我国大陆仍然充满对立情绪的朝野各方达这种共识:

中国大陆从一元化走向民主政治的历史性变革,只有在政府当局有诚意的情况下,从上而下地程序化地和平进行,才能将其负面影响——即对民众社会经济生活的破坏作用,降到最低限度!
应当指出,浩浩荡荡的世界潮流,国际上空前强大的民主力量,不仅使中国的和平变革成为众望所归,也使之获得了各种必要的条件——今天的国际国内形势,无论从哪方面说,绝不容许“六•四“那样的惨案重演,与此同时,正义和理性也不希望”六•四“之前的社会管理失控状况发生。

当前问题的关键在于,这一变革必将使中国社会的上层阶级和某此既得利益者受到了一定的冲击,从而使他们对变革持消极、拒斥态度;同时,一些现制度的受害阶层及个人,也难免出现偏激情绪。这两种情况,均在一定程度上对和平地程序化地政治转型产生消极作用。
至于台湾海峡两岸的问题,其关键显然并不在于以什么方式,在什么时候统一,而在于以什么为基础,在什么共识上统一。
在上述历史背景下,我们作为中国公民,满怀伟大的使命感,斗胆站出来呼吁全国朝野上下:
让我们以“全民的利益高于一切”为原则,捐弃前嫌,互敬互让,折中妥协,共商国是,实现中华民族大和解,以求在平和稳妥的方式下,一起来完成中国大陆的政治制度转型,以及台湾海峡两岸的和平统一大业!
我们特别提醒朝野各界,为了避免矛盾的激化,导致必然来临的政治变革进程失去控制,从而使国家陷入无政府状况,造成持续的社会动荡,以及内战乃至割据局面,有关各方从现在开始,便应采取一切可能的方法来防患于未然。特别是中国大陆政府当局,尤其有责任尽早采取主动措施,逐步缓和局面,抓住目前的有利时机,自觉顺应历史发展规律,否则,便必须对可能出现的上述各种局面负最大的历史责任。

为了避免中国下阶段的政治历史再次重蹈近百年的恶性怪圈,我们在充分考虑到海峡两岸朝野各方的共同利益,特别是它们各自的特列殊利益的前提下,特向海峡两岸的政府,当然首先是大陆政府,向包括海峡两岸及港澳和少数民族在内的全体中国人和海外同胞,向海内外一切致力于社会进步的团体,郑重地推荐以下具有可操作性的全民和解程序:

第一、我们认为,大陆政府代表中国作为联合国安理会的常任理事国,有义务遵守联合国有关人权问题的一切决议,并应该从以当代国际标准保障中国人民的人权入手,立刻制定与当代各民主国家类等的人身、言论、通信、出版、集会、结社(含开放党禁)、游行、示威、罢工以及公民自由出入国境等方面的法规,立刻废除“反革命罪”,并在国际监督和国际国内與论督促下严格执行。
作为一种善意的回应,我们呼吁民众将自己不可让渡的集会、游行、示威权利,在一段不长的时间内停留在当局目前的法律水平上,以减少由政府主导的和平过渡起步阶段的社会震荡。

第二、我们呼吁大陆政府当局拿出驾驭历史性变革的宏大气魄,从速制定并实施从一元化到多元化,进而建立和健全民主政治的战略措施,从而创造使大陆的政治制度转型过程始终处于中央政府可以控制和调节的范围内的条件。

第三、在大陆政府承认上两条的前提下,我们呼吁全体民众和海内外一切进步力量,尊重大陆政府是唯一有可能主导大陆和平变革的主要力量这一事实,积极主动地与他们合作,提供各种具有可操作性的建设性建议,搁置那些无关宏旨的利害冲突,力争与当局之间形成一种良性互动关系,从而共同推动和解进程。

第四、我们督促大陆政府首先做出第一个必要的和解姿态,那就是立即平反“六•四”事件,释放因“六•四”和其他原因入狱的一切政治犯,不分政治信念和派别,给所有“六•四”遇难者及其他政治受害者或家属发放适量抚恤金。
我们呼吁受难者家属与社会各界,在大陆政府真正表现出和解诚意的时候,拿出向前看的态度,不再追究“六•四”和以往各种政治事件的一般责任。

第五、我们呼吁中共及其政府解除一切对政治流亡者的法律禁令,允许流亡国外的一切学生、学者、工运人士和其他人回国。
我们坚信,中国的问题只能靠中国人自己在中国本土解决。因此,我们呼吁一切真正有志于献身祖国的人,立即回国参加中国的经济现代化和政治民主化建设。

第六、以现代国际标准制定与实施结社法并开放党禁之日,就是海内外一切非暴力政治社团与政党可以合法注册之时,届时,各社团与政党均应勇跃到有关部门去登记注册。今天,我们则呼吁各方以公开性、合法性与非暴力为原则,有策略有艺术地开展不会造成社会秩序动荡的思想运动,以此作为争取人权和民主运动所应有的最低限度的压力方式。在能够合法注册之后,当然也应以此为原则。

第七、我们呼吁台湾海峡两岸的政府立刻开始直接的对等谈判。我们相信中华民族的凝聚力足以使台湾与大陆和平统一。因此,我们呼吁大陆当局正式放弃武力解决问题的主张,并以同等态度对待台湾的国民党、民进党以及其他政党,在条件成熟时,应当欢迎台湾政党到大陆发展。我们也呼吁台湾朝野各界届时能对等地欢迎包括共产党在内的大陆政党到台湾发展,从而最终完成台湾海峡两岸的社会政治整合。我们也呼吁台湾民进党放弃“台独”主张,积极致力于包括大陆、台湾、港澳在内的全中国民主进步事业。

第八、我们呼吁大陆政府充分尊重香港和澳门人民的自治权利,以主权归中央,治权归地方为原则处理港澳回归祖国后的问题,充分尊重当地人民对社会、政治、经济制度与生活方式的选择。

第九、我们呼吁全国各族人民共同维护中华民族大团结,同时呼吁政府按现代国际标准处理各种少数民族问题,充分尊重各少数民族的民族自决权,放弃以暴力维持大一统的封建观念。

第十、在以上各条被各方,当然首先是被大陆政府基本接受的基础上,我们建议从速召开包括大陆、台湾、港澳、少数民族以及海内外朝野各界人士在内的圆桌会议,共同讨论并决定中国下阶段的和平变革与海峡两岸的和平统一问题。当然,根据客观情况的需要,可以先做许多双边或多边的预备性会谈,并分专题分别举行和平变革或两岸统一的圆桌会议。
我们相信,上述建议不仅符合中国人民的根本利益,也是中国下阶段历史的理性要求。我们特别要求大陆政府理解我们的善意,接受我们的全民和解主张。

我们呼吁所有的中国人和全世界的炎黄子际与我们一起来联名表达希望大陆实现和平的政治转型、希望海峡两岸实现和平统一的共同意愿。
《和平宪章》是一切认同本宪章的海内外中国人不分政治派别组成的自由而公开的非正式团体,它以个人和集体的努力,为和平过渡到一个多元化的政治力量并存的民主的统一的中国,而开展各种公开的合法活动。
《和平宪章》欢迎海内外同意其观点的人以各种有效方式支持和参加它的工作——发起签名运动,进行广泛的宣传,以及在当今宪法和法律允许并保障的范围内开展的其他活动。

《和平宪章》极端重视和尊重这样一个事实,中共及其政府是唯一能主导大陆和平地完成从一元化转型到多元化民主政治的主要社会力量,真诚地希望能促成其肩负起这一沉重的历史任务,并强烈敦促它不要错过最后的机会。
《和平宪章》所提出的各条措施,只是我们在当前情况下所能看到的具有可操作性的一些步骤,对这些抛砖引玉的看法没有过分拘泥的必要。但我们坚信,本宪章主张在现政府主导下实现程序化的和平变革的精神,不仅符合中国人和大陆政府的最大利益,而且是当代中国唯一理性的抉择。

《和平宪章》签署人包括各界人士,他们共同作为本宪章的发起人对该宪章承担责任,同时,他们推举出三位发言人,在和台湾海峡两岸的政府的讨论中,在国内外的公共场合全权代表《和平宪章》。该宪章颁布的文件依其重要性程度,由签署人或仅仅由发言人签名生效。全体签署人均有义务接受各界人士的签名,与有志于本宪章的各界人士一起来开展各项活动,执行特定的任务,并共同承担全部责任。

让我们和全体中国人一道,为中国大陆的和平变革与海峡两岸的和平统一而努力!

起草人:秦永敏

关于《和平宪章》(草案)的意见书

我们——所有关注中国大陆政治制度和平转型与海峡两岸和平统一的朋友,作为本意见书的签字人,与《和平宪章》(草案)的起草人,于1993年11月14日,在北京举行了关于《和平宪章》(草案)的讨论会,大家原则上同意《和平宪章》(草案)的基本思想。
本建议的所有签字人决定,责成《和平宪章》(草案)的起草人在广泛听取社会各界意见的基础上,对之进行充实、修政和完善,经进一步讨论后通过。
考虑到中国当前的形势,签字人一致同意,自《和平宪章》公布之日起,就在北京、上海、武汉等地设立联系人,并就《和平宪章》向社会广泛征集意见。所有签字人都有义务征集意见。一旦《和平宪章》正式通过,所有签字人自动成为它的正式签署人,此前所有征集到的有签名意向的人,则自动成为《和平宪章》的正式签名人。

《和平宪章》(草案)的联系人暂定为:
1、北京市朝阳区三里屯北区南20楼一门12号
刘念春 邮编:100027
2、上海市黄浦区外滩街道人民路558号
杨周 邮编:200002 电话:3732605
3、武汉市青山区红钢城21街坊4门2号
秦永敏 邮编:430080

本“意见书”签字人:周国强、秦永敏、宋书元、杨周、刘念春、陈旅、李海、钱玉民、沙裕光

一九九三年十一月十四日

Egypt: Preview of America in 2015

3 Feb

Egypt: Preview of America in 2015

The rioting and looting taking place in Egypt is primarily a result of massive food inflation and shows what all major cities in the United States will likely look like come year 2015 due to the Federal Reserve’s zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing to infinity. On December 16th, 2009, NIA named Time Magazine’s 2009 ‘Person of the Year’ Ben Bernanke our ‘Villain of the Year’, saying he created “unprecedented amounts of inflation in unprecedented ways” and “When it costs $20 for a gallon of milk in a few years, Americans will have nobody to thank more than Bernanke.”

What started out a few weeks ago as protests in Algeria with citizens chanting “Bring Us Sugar!” and five citizens being killed, quickly spread to civil unrest in Tunisia which saw 14 more civilian deaths, and has now spread to riots in Egypt where 300 Egyptian citizens have been killed. Food inflation in Egypt has reached 20% and citizens in the nation already spend about 40% of their monthly expenditures on food. Americans for decades have been blessed with cheap food, spending only 13% of their expenditures on food, but this is about to change.

NIA was the first to predict the recent explosion in agricultural commodity prices in our October 30th, 2009, article entitled, “U.S. Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture”, which said we have a “perfect storm for an explosion in agriculture prices”. A couple of months later in ‘NIA’s Top 10 Predictions for 2010′ we predicted “Major Food Shortages” and said, “Inventories of agricultural products are the lowest they have been in decades yet the prices of many agricultural commodities are down 70% to 80% from their all time highs adjusted for real inflation”. Over the past year, agricultural commodities as a whole have outperformed almost every other type of asset, with silver being one of only a few other assets keeping pace with agriculture. (On December 11th, 2009, NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade at $17.40 per ounce and it has so far risen 64% to its current price of $28.39 per ounce).

The world is at the beginning stages of an all out inflationary panic. Wheat, which NIA previously called on ‘NIAnswers’ its favorite investment besides gold and silver, is now up to a new 30-month high of $8.63 per bushel and has doubled in price since June of last year. Algeria bought 800,000 tonnes of wheat this past week, bringing their total purchases for the month of January up to 1.8 million tonnes, which was quadruple expectations. Saudi Arabia is also beginning to stockpile their inventories of wheat. Rice futures have gained 8% during the past few days with Bangladesh and Indonesia placing extraordinary large orders. Indonesia’s latest rice order was quadruple its normal allotment and Bangladesh plans to double rice purchases this year. Meanwhile, the U.S., which is the world’s third largest exporter of rice, is expected to cut production by 25% in 2011.

NIA considers rice to be one of the world’s most undervalued agricultural commodities at its current price of $15.96 per 100 pounds and forecasts a move back to its 2008 high of $24 per 100 pounds as soon as the end of 2011. NIA believes cotton, at its current price of $1.80 per pound, may have gotten a bit ahead of itself in the short-term. In NIA’s first ever article about agriculture on February 17th, 2009, we said that cotton’s “upside potential is astronomical” at its then price of $0.44 per pound. NIA pointed to increasing sales to textile companies in China and the fact that cotton was down 70% from its all time high as reasons to be very bullish on cotton at $0.44 per pound. Early NIA members could have made 309% on cotton, but today we see much bigger potential in rice. The recent spike in cotton reminds us of the 2008 spike in oil. Although we believe cotton will ultimately rise above $3 per pound later this decade, we could see a dip to below $1.40 per pound first.

Many people in the mainstream media have criticized NIA’s recent food inflation report, claiming that agricultural commodity prices have very little to do with prices of food in the supermarket. CNBC’s Steve Liesman, in particular, claims that “rising commodity prices won’t cause inflation”. Liesman has it backwards. NIA has never claimed that rising commodity prices cause inflation. Soaring budget deficits that the U.S. government can’t possibly pay for through taxation causes inflation when the Fed is forced to monetize the debt by printing money.

Rising commodity prices are only a symptom of inflation. The reason NIA was so bullish on agricultural commodities going back two years ago when we produced our first documentary ‘Hyperinflation Nation’, is because while gold is the best gauge of inflation and is often the best tool for predicting future money printing, agriculture is where the majority of the monetary inflation ends up going after the Fed’s newly printed money trickles down to the middle-class and poor. With gold prices already surging two years ago when we produced ‘Hyperinflation Nation’, NIA said in the documentary “food prices have the potential to surge most during hyperinflation”.
One thing NIA is almost 100% sure of is that come year 2015, middle-class Americans will be spending at least 30% to 40% of their income on food, similar to Egyptians today. As NIA warned in its latest documentary ‘End of Liberty’, if you don’t have enough money to accumulate physical gold and silver, it is important to begin establishing your own food storage, and store enough food to feed you and your family for at least six months during hyperinflation. Many store shelves in Egypt are now empty after recent panic buying, with shortages of nearly all major staple items throughout the country.

The U.S. Treasury is getting ready to sell $72 billion in new long-term bonds next week, as the U.S. rapidly approaches its $14.29 trillion debt limit. The debt limit is now expected to be reached by April 5th and Treasury Secretary Geithner warned the U.S. will see “catastrophic damage” if it isn’t raised. With the Federal Reserve now surpassing China and Japan as the largest holder of U.S. treasuries, the real “catastrophic damage” ahead will be hyperinflation as a result of the U.S. government doing absolutely nothing to dramatically cut spending. It is an absolute joke that Obama during his State of the Union address announced $400 billion in spending cuts over the next 10 years, but then the very next day, the Congressional Budget Office increased its 2011 budget deficit projection by $400 billion to $1.48 trillion.

Not raising the debt limit would be a good thing, as it would force Washington to live within its means. Sure, the stock market would collapse and the U.S. economy would enter into its next Great Depression, but at least it would save the U.S. dollar from losing all of its purchasing power. In fact, the standard of living for middle class Americans might actually improve if the government allowed the free market to put our economy into a depression, because goods and services would get cheaper.

The U.S. economy has become a drug addict that is dependent on cheap and easy money from the Federal Reserve. While Wall Street bankers took home a record $135 billion in total compensation in 2010, up 5.7% from $128 billion in 2009, this money was stolen from middle-class and poor Americans through inflation. The more monetary inflation (heroin) the Federal Reserve creates to satisfy the (in the words of Gerald Celente) “money junkies” on Wall Street, the more middle-class and poor Americans become dependent on unemployment checks and food stamps just to survive. Millions of American students are graduating college with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt but no jobs. Luckily for them (but not holders of U.S. dollars), NIA is hearing reports from both unemployed and underemployed college graduates with student loans that the government is reducing their required monthly payments by sometimes 90% or more based on their current incomes.

China and Japan recently saw their credit ratings downgraded, while the U.S. credit rating remains at “AAA”. NIA believes it would make far more sense for the world’s largest debtor nation to be downgraded instead of the world’s two largest creditor nations. The Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing has yet to even reach the halfway point and the Fed already holds about $1.11 trillion in U.S. treasuries. By the time QE2 is over at the end of June, the Fed will own $1.6 trillion in U.S. treasuries, about what China and Japan own combined. Shockingly, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is already dropping hints about QE3. According to Hoenig, the Fed may consider extending treasury purchases beyond June 30th, 2010, (the scheduled completion date for QE2) if U.S. economic data looks disappointing.

With the Fed taking over as the largest holder of U.S. treasuries, China is beginning to rapidly move away from the U.S. dollar and into gold. In just the first 10 months of 2010, China imported 209 metric tons of gold compared to 45 metric tons in all of 2009, a stunning five-fold increase. While the western world is downplaying the threat of inflation as much as possible, Asian countries understand that hyperinflation is the most devastating thing that can possibly happen to any economy. The demand for gold in Asia now is the most intense it has ever been, as they look to tackle rising inflation before it becomes hyperinflation.

The Chinese are so smart that families are now giving each other gold bullion as gifts instead of traditional red envelopes filled with cash. China is now on track to soon surpass India as the world’s largest consumer of gold. The China Securities Regulatory Commission recently gave Beijing-based Lion Fund Management Co. approval to create a fund that will invest into foreign gold ETFs.

U.S. stock mutual funds saw $6.7 billion in net inflows during the past two weeks, the most in any two week period since May of 2009. The rioting, looting, and civil unrest in Egypt is now making the U.S. look like the safe haven of the world, even though it should be considered the riskiest place to invest. From the Dow’s low in August until now, about $38 billion was actually removed from U.S. stock mutual funds, despite the stock market rising 20%. The Dow Jones has risen from September until now solely due to the Federal Reserve printing around $350 billion out of thin air. When central banks print money, stock markets often act as a relief valve due to there being too much inflation going into the hands of financial institutions.

The U.S. M2 money supply surged by $46.6 billion during the week ending January 17th to a record $8.8623 trillion, following a rise during the previous week of $7.6 billion. The rise in the M2 money supply over the past two weeks of $54.2 billion equals an annualized increase of 16%. The M2 multiplier now stands at 4.218 compared to a long-term average of 10. When QE2 is complete, the Fed’s monetary base will likely stand at $2.59 trillion. A return to the long-term average M2 multiplier of 10 means we are due to see a 192% increase in the M2 money supply and that is not even including a possible QE3 and QE4.

The U.S. economic ponzi scheme could unravel very quickly in the years ahead, with the velocity of money increasing faster than anybody expects. As more Americans learn about NIA and become educated to the truth about the U.S. economy and inflation, a complete loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar could occur very suddenly. It is important for all Americans to prepare as if hyperinflation will be here tomorrow. At least in Egypt, their currency still has purchasing power and their citizens are trying to carry out a regime change before it is too late. By 2015 in America, it will already be too late and the civil unrest here has the potential to be many times worse.

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

Obama Fails to Address Inflation in State of the Union

27 Jan

President Obama’s State of the Union address last night did not make one single mention of inflation, when it is the belief of NIA that massive price inflation (especially food inflation) will become America’s top crisis by the end of this calendar year. Obama’s speech also failed to mention the Federal Reserve, the Federal Funds Rate being held near 0% for over two years, and the Fed’s latest round of $600 billion in quantitative easing. Unless Obama addresses our nation’s fiat currency system, nothing else he says has any meaning at all.

After the U.S. lost 8.36 million jobs over a two year period from December of 2007 through December of 2009, our economy has recovered 1.12 million jobs as a result of the Federal Reserve and U.S. government spending $4.6 trillion on bailouts and stimulus programs. That is over $4 million spent for each job created. Instead of bailing out Wall Street and allowing non-productive bankers to receive record bonuses, the U.S. could have sent a check for $550,000 to each middle-class American who lost their job.

When a central bank prints trillions of dollars out of thin air, you are going to see some type of a nominal uptick in economic statistics. Obama can brag all he wants about over 1 million jobs being created, but he continues to ignore what the ultimate cost of it will be. When a government has an annual cash budget deficit of over $1 trillion that cannot possibly be balanced by raising taxes, massive inflation is the inevitable outcome. Our real budget deficit, once you include increases in our unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, is already north of $5 trillion. NIA believes the U.S. is now at serious risk of experiencing hyperinflation by the year 2015.

Obama proposed in his speech that “we freeze annual domestic spending for the next five years” saying it “would reduce the deficit by more than $400 billion over the next decade, and will bring discretionary spending to the lowest share of our economy since Dwight Eisenhower was president.” The truth is, Obama’s proposals, if successfully implemented, would not reduce the deficit by $400 billion over the next decade. They would only cut $400 billion from proposed spending increases. NIA doesn’t understand why Obama would even waste his breath talking about reducing the deficit by $400 billion over the next decade, when the Federal Reserve is creating $600 billion in monetary inflation over a period of just eight months. Americans who listened to Obama speak last night wasted over an hour of their time, because until the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and stops printing money, it will be impossible for the U.S. economy to truly recover and become healthy.

Even if the U.S. government cut all discretionary spending down to zero, we would still have a budget deficit from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid alone. Surprisingly, Obama admitted that most of the cuts he proposed “only address annual domestic spending, which represents a little more than 12% of our budget.” When referring to the Deficit Commission’s proposed spending cuts, Obama said “their conclusion is that the only way to tackle our deficit is to cut excessive spending wherever we find it”. In what was Obama’s most shocking statement of the night, he went on to say, “This means further reducing health care costs, including programs like Medicare and Medicaid, which are the single biggest contributor to our long-term deficit.”

This is the closest Obama has ever come to admitting that major cuts to Medicare and Medicaid are necessary, if we want to have any hope of ever balancing our budget. However, NIA is taking Obama’s comments with a grain of salt. He immediately changed the subject in the very next sentence, claiming his health care reform law that was enacted last year “will slow these rising costs”. He then continued to defend the law saying, “repealing the health care law would add a quarter of a trillion dollars to our deficit.”

One week ago, the new Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives voted 245-189 to repeal Obama’s health care reform law. The House’s vote to repeal it is meaningless because it would never pass the U.S. Senate and even if it did, Obama would simply veto it. NIA believes the law should be repealed because it is impossible for government legislation to bring down health care costs. Only the free market can bring down health care costs and the health care reform law will impede the free market more than any piece of legislation has ever impeded the free market in any industry or sector in history. In our opinion, the new health care law is guaranteed to add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade and there is absolutely no chance of Obama ever making the necessary dramatic cuts to Medicare and Medicaid until the U.S. is already in the middle of an outbreak of hyperinflation.

When it comes to Social Security, Obama said we need a “bipartisan solution to strengthen” it and “we must do it without putting at risk current retirees” and “without slashing benefits for future generations”. In other words, nobody in Washington is even going to bring up the possibility of cutting or eliminating Social Security, because it would be political suicide for them. We need more honest representatives in Washington like Ron Paul who aren’t afraid to speak the truth about the need to cut entitlement programs and inform the American public to the consequences of our government’s deficit spending.

Most Americans think they don’t have to worry about our country’s national debt because our grandchildren are the ones who will ultimately be responsible to pay it off. Unfortunately, it won’t just be our grandchildren who feel the pain of our deficit spending and monetary inflation. All Americans with incomes and savings in U.S. dollars along with all foreigners holding dollar-denominated assets will begin to feel the pain of our government’s destructive actions in the very near future through massive price inflation and the U.S. dollar losing nearly all of its purchasing power.

One thing from last night’s State of the Union address is very clear, Obama is not serious about cutting spending and nobody in Washington has any expectation of the U.S. ever returning to a balanced budget. NIA believes that this past week’s dip in the prices of gold and silver is an unbelievable buying opportunity for Americans who already own precious metals as well as those wishing to buy precious metals for the first time. Sure, both gold and silver could dip lower in the short-term, but we can’t try to time short-term fluctuations and we need to stay focused on the long-term destruction of the U.S. dollar. In future State of the Union addresses to come in another year or two down the road, the entire focus of the President’s speech will likely be on inflation and the collapsing U.S. dollar. When that time comes and mainstream America becomes aware of what NIA members have known for years, we could easily see $5,000 per ounce gold and $500 per ounce silver, and everybody will regret not loading up as much as possible at these levels.

It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

America in decline

14 Oct

The NJTransit is still running slow after Amtrak decided to have their signal malfunction. It took them almost two hours to fix the problem and it would not surprise me if their maintenance crew was jacking off to porn instead of doing their jobs to prevent problems on the tracks.  Its clear that Amtrak is constantly doing wrong seeing that they are consistently unprofitable and are still alive thanks to government funds. The only Amtrak that runs smoothly is the one Joe Biden uses to commute to work.

The economy is still in the shitters. Obama does not give a flying fuck about any of you unless you are someone he can depend on or if you are a wealthy campaign contributor. Other than that he will talk bold but so nothing if he has to deal with the opposition or his internal factions. Sadly I have no choice but to reelect him in 2012 since the Republicans will put a moron against him. I have the impression many Americans are adverse to sanity or reason which is why Obama won over Kucinich and Palin is favoured over Ron Paul.

This bad economy is a golden age for job recruiters and the HR industry.  They can simply abandon all pretenses of professional hiring due to the large pool of desperate workers.  They can now schedule people for interviews only to take it back at the last minute. They can blacklist candidates at will if they do not immediately respond or have one item that doesn’t fit their requirements. They start asking overqualified people to take the same job for more work and less pay. With unemployment nearing 20% they can do whatever they want.

This is an era of nothing. There is a President that acts cool but can’t do shit when it matters and there is a society that has no real income no real job or no real assets. This is the new American Dream while the original dream is now made in China or outsourced to India.

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China Bans the Burqa

15 Sep

BEIJING (AP) — China’s Interior Ministry announced yesterday that it would ban the burqa from being worn in public. The new law, which will be imposed next month, would forcefully put an end to the wearing of modesty-protecting garments for women in public. The new regulations also stipulate fines for wearing certain types of culturally-related clothing.

State-controlled media stated that the ban was necessary in order to maintain security. The Chinese regime is known for keeping widespread surveillance on ordinary civilians, especially ethnic minorities, to prevent possible anti-government activity. Last month an ethnic Tibetan, who was caught stealing on a convenience store’s camera was ordered to pay a fine, even though a number of dissidents criticized the video footage as “unfair evidence”.

The new law is expected to target ethnic minorities, such as the Uyghurs as well as the growing number of African immigrants, both of which already experience widespread discrimination in the racist Chinese society. While many ethnic minorities experience also prejudice if they wear ethnic clothing, but the new law is expected to add to already-existing prejudices.

“The burqa is like a security shield for me,” said one African woman who recently joined her husband and two children in Guangzhou. “In a hostile society, it gives me the confidence I need. People always stare at me when I go by because I am African. The burqa at least helps me emotionally,” she said. Another Ngubago Okulenagu, who has become an advocate for African immigrants working in China called the ban “simply unfair,” and pointed out the failure of the Chinese government’s ability to accommodate new members of society.

Several dissidents and activist rights groups have criticized China’s new law, which has been described as discriminatory. Reporters Without Borders, Amnesty International, and the International Woman’s Rights Group have all condemned the restrictions. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, responding to the new crackdown also said, “Abridging people’s right to wear cultural symbols violates fundamental human rights,” and urged the Chinese government to reconsider.

Barack Obama nukes the Japanese “Obama”

1 Jun

So there you have it. Yukio Hatoyama, once dubbed the “Japanese Obama” by supporters and the press, has resigned due to the collapse of  his coalition over his failure to remove American bases off of Okinawa.  The irony  is Obama was the one who sealed his Japanese counterpart’s fate by playing hardball at Hatoyama’s repeated attempts to move American forces to bases in mainland Japan.

I often joked that it was Hatoyama’s tacky choice of fashion, and his nutty wife as the cause for his downfall, but I was just joking.  Despite being in power for barely 8 months, Hatoyama proved that the opposition can again break the hard conservative, nationalist Liberal Democratic Party’s stranglehold on government and give people a sense of empowerment in their country’s fate.  Moreover, he was able to cultivate ties with his regional neighbours that brought about improved trade and badly needed diplomatic influence.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemons/obama-takes-down-the-wron_b_597038.html?view=print

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hatoyama.jpg
(photo credit: Office of the Prime Minister, Government of Japan)

Japan Prime Minister and Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Hatoyama, whose amazing electoral victory last year unseating the long dominant Liberal Democratic Party, has announced that he is stepping down from his position for failing to deliver on a key campaign promise to the Japanese people about moving the US Marine Futenma Air Station off of Okinawa.

I will be arriving in Tokyo tomorrow (on Thursday) and will be in Naha, Okinawa this next Monday.

Hatoyama could not withstand the pressure from Obama — who gave Hatoyama the kind of icy treatment that the White House has also been trying to give Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The problem is Hatoyama wilted, and Netanyahu seems to be thriving.

I recently wrote a piece on the odd dynamic between President Obama and two different Prime Ministers — Netanyahu and Hatoyama — for the Kyodo News Service. It has already run in Japanese, but I post the entire English language version here:

While Israel is given free rein by Obama to shoot up unarmed activists who were bringing in-kind aid to a ravaged part of Palestine in Gaza, the Japanese Prime Minister is told to pick up Obama’s poop when he needed to move bases to protect his coalition government and regain support from his electorate.  I really don’t know what Obama is doing by burning bridges with his Japanese Obama while allowing a right-wing Zionist to do as he pleases with pro-Palestine activists.

Of Presidents & Prime Ministers in the Age of Obama
by Steve Clemons

Jan ken pon. Scissors cut paper. Paper covers Rock. Rock smashes scissors. There is an interesting drama playing out between several world leaders today that reminds of this game.

President Barack Obama seems to be smashing the political fortunes of Japan Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. On the other hand, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been rebuffing and constraining Obama. Obama and China’s Hu Jintao seem to be stalemated, playing jan ken pon over and over and over again.

Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation is right.  Obama is pissing on his Japanese lackey when he won’t play ball while giving Israel a free pass for all the wrong reasons (some people say it’s due to Liberal Christian American guilt for allowing the Holocaust to happen and for turning away countless Jewish refugees fleeing Nazi-ravaged Europe).

He is also right about Obama and Hu struggle in a locked battle over global influence; America relies on Chinese funds to support its debt-fueled recovery while China depends on American assets to develop its world influence.  To be frank, America’s obscene debt and notable human rights violations has made it very difficult for Obama to even criticise China for their gross corruption, economic inequality and human rights violations.  This is especially the case given America’s War of Terror in Iraq,  the existence of Guantanamo Bay detention centres, and inability to stop an oil spill from killing the Gulf of Mexico.

“Defining challenges” for leaders and nations are those that represent the highest stakes wins and potential losses. The United States, for example, invested enormous blood and treasure in triggering change in Iraq and the broader Middle East and thus the Middle East today is a self-chosen defining challenge for the country. For Barack Obama, there were other defining challenges that he promised to stand by – including closing the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, “stopping” climate change, ending the war in Iraq, achieving Israel-Palestine peace and delivering the opportunity of universal health care coverage to American citizens.

So far, Obama has done nothing to stop the problems noted above and the best he has done is maintain the status quo and making too many concessions for nominal party unity.

Basically:

1. Guantanamo Bay detention centres are here to stay.  Sure, prisoners might be allowed a fair trial but not really.  America bitches about China having prison camps that arbitrarily arrest people without due process, yet it is not too different in Guantanamo Bay and possibly worse since many of those prisoners are there as a result of racial or religious profiling. FAIL

2. Climate change is not going to be stopped.  Obama basically caved in at the Copenhagen Summit per China’s concerns and nothing is done.  His administration has done nothing to fight off fringe claims that Climate Change is a conspiracy or fabricated because of some faulty data and emails from academics in a third-rate university.  FAIL

3. Ending the War in Iraq.  The War of Terror is still a go despite Obama’s claims of gradual troop reductions.  For all intents and purposes, Iraq is a failed state and American troops are the only thing keeping the country from 1) breaking up, 2) becoming a pro-Iran client state, and 3) becoming an haven for terrorists.  The current Iraqi government is simply going to play along with Obama’s agenda until all American troops leave their country. After that they will do as they see fit even if it goes completely against the American-imposed reforms or undoes all progress that was somehow achieved in the American War of Terror. NOT FAIL

4. Israel inspires with its handling of the Gaza peace activists. Obama unconditionally supports Israel and their version of the crisis despite criticism from the rest of the world. Way to go Obama for rewarding bad behaviour and acting as an objective, honest broker in the Israel-Palestine peace process.  No wonder Brazil is making inroads with Israel and the rest of the Middle East while America is viewed as a biased bully.  FAIL

5. Health Care reforms have changed nothing.  The only major change is that the IRS can now fine American taxpayers who refuse to buy any form of health insurance.  I know for a fact nothing has changed for me. My insurance companies still make lame excuses to not cover certain treatments and they will go about making it difficult for insurers and doctors to get their claims processed.  What about the Public Option? Well guys, the Public Option is pretty much dead like Gary Coleman, Dennis Hopper and the Gulf of Mexico. FAIL

Obama’s equation for moving Middle East peace forward was just too quaint and simple. Even though Israel is completely dependent on American security guarantees and aid and is genuinely a client state of the United States, the pugnacious prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, flamboyantly rebuffed Obama’s call to stop settlements. Obama, with some twisting and modification of his position, has essentially forfeited the match to Netanyahu.

During the early part of the John F. Kennedy administration, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev beat Kennedy in similar challenges and began to doubt Kennedy’s resolve and strategic temperament – leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Today, Netanyahu has become the Khrushchev of the Obama administration – and one wonders if a crisis lies ahead in which Obama will have to reassert his primacy lest the world think that Israel runs the United States and the Obama presidency.

Yep, basically the writer suggests Obama is weak leader, which I agree. It’s hard to believe that the world’s sole superpower is being pushed around by a non-oil producing Middle Eastern client state.  Obama is a weak leader as seen by his inability to keep Congress from dicking around with healthcare and finance reforms, by his reluctance to get involved with the oil spill crisis that BP created, and by his unwavering support of Israel’s handling of the unfolding Gaza crisis.

But while the Israeli Prime Minister is beating Obama, Obama is clearly smashing the legacy and political position of Japan Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

Hatoyama is conceding on a key campaign promise to move Futenma Marine Air Station off of the heavily US-base covered island of Okinawa. Now, some minor functions of Futenma will be transferred off island, but the bulk of the facility will simply be moved to another section of Okinawa.

Barack Obama put huge pressure on Hatoyama, asking him “Can I trust you?” He has maintained an icy posture towards Hatoyama, hardly communicating with him or agreeing to meetings – making the Prime Minister “lose face.” Contrasting this with the invitation to former Prime Minister Taro Aso to be the first official head of government to visit the White House and Secetary of State Hillary Clinton’s decision to make Tokyo her first foreign destination, one can see that while America seems unable to muster pressure to achieve a “win” with Israel, it is more than able to do so with the leader of a rich nation of 128 million people.

Hatoyama may survive this rebuke of the United States and this policy reversal that has made him appear weak and indecisive before Japan’s citizens, but Obama has been unfair in this standoff with Japan’s prime minister.

Basically a weak leader will simply bully an even weaker leader to appear strong. In this case, Barry H. Obama decided to pick on the Japanese Obama in a sad attempt to prove American strength in East Asia.  While he managed to strong-arm Hatoyama into allowing America to maintain its base in Okinawa, he also managed to lose long-term support from a like-minded world leader and progressive.  Looking at the bigger picture, Obama may have undone potential reform that the DPJ was trying to carry out after working tirelessly to break the LDP’ and the bureaucracy’s dominance in government. Well it looks like Obama’s treatment of Hatoyama is a boon for the old boys network, business leaders, and corrupt officials in Japan.

Obama himself promised to close Guantanamo Bay within one year of his presidency. This was a major commitment, and the administration failed to achieve it. But the US is not a parliamentary democracy where executive leadership can rise and fall over a single issue at any time. Presidents get a time period to stack up their wins and their losses so that when re-election comes around, they are measured on a combination of issues. But Hatoyama’s government could fall over just this issue – and Obama did little to help the new Prime Minister stack up some wins with the US and the international system before crushing him on Futenma.

Japan, despite all of its considerable strengths and what could have been exciting, visionary new leadership from Hatoyama and his Democratic Party colleagues, is still a vassal of the United States – whereas the United States appears more and more a vassal of Israel’s interest – and on China, we’ll just have to wait and see how history tilts.

Obama is really a weak leader and operates under a broken government with too many loopholes that have undermined the “checks and balances” in the American government.  Not only is he a weak leader of a broken government, he has also managed to destroy a progressive government for the sake of stacking up minor victories for his own administration.  In any event, I agree that Japan will only move towards a new era of progress if it is able to end its client state relationship with America.

The Roewe (荣威) 350

24 Apr

The Roewe 350 won’t be formally launched until the Beijing motor show later this month, but already it has been confirmed a hatchback version will be on sale in the UK this time next year, badged as an MG and part assembled at the MG Birmingham plant in Longbridge.

As with the MG6, a development model of which we recently drove and found to be borderline best-in-class to drive, the Roewe 350 is based on an all-new platform. Its set-up has been tuned by the SAIC technical offshoot in the UK.

There are some similarities in appearance to the 550/MG6, although it’s hard to call the 350 stylish. Inside it is a cut above the 550/MG6, although there’s still a fairly basic use of leather and silver trim detailing. The switchgear shows some flair and the interior materials are of a high standard.

Visibility is good, particularly up front thanks to small A-pillars that give the cabin an airy appearance. It’s spacious too, particularly in the rear.

The 1.5-litre engine, however, is a disappointment. Part of the new NSE family of engines being produced by SAIC, it only meets Euro 4 emissions standards and will need modifications to reach Euro 5, meaning UK buyers won’t be buying it in this spec. Instead, a 1.5-litre turbocharged unit will be added to the Roewe 350 line-up, with a new 1.3-litre unit expected to feature in the MG range.

With just 107bhp and 100lb ft of torque, the unit in our test car lacked grunt and needed to be worked hard, with power only coming in strongly above a raucous 3000rpm. It’s not that frugal either, averaging 37.6mpg, although both wind and road noise are well suppressed. Part of that is down to the four-speed auto gearbox which does, at least, make smooth changes.

More positive is the ride and handling. The 350 rides smoothly in town and out on the motorway, but is firm enough to be reasonably fun on twisty roads.

The handling isn’t sporty, with a deliberate emphasis on comfort, but the steering offers a reasonable amount of feel. However, it is let down by a very soft brake set up that does nothing to inspire confidence.

In the Chinese market this is a good car, if not class-leading one. In Europe that’s unlikely to be enough, but it’s worth remembering, though, that there will be significant changes before it goes on sale as an MG – and that’s why we’re reserving final judgment.

http://www.roewe.com.cn/roewe350/

http://www.autocar.co.uk/CarReviews/FirstDrives/Roewe-350-1.5/248880/

http://www.autoblog.com/2010/03/26/roewe-350-the-first-car-to-run-on-android/

The 2010 MG 6 by SAIC

7 Apr

The 2010 MG 6 made its debut at the 2009 Auto Shanghai motor show as the SAIC-owned Morris Garages brand after it aquired the Nanjing Automobile Group. The MG 6 is a fastback based on the Roewe 550 (MG 5). ike the Roewe 550, most of the development and styling of the MG 6 was done at the SAIC Motor UK Technical Centre.

The most popular engine option is expected to be the N-Series 1.8 engine, available in two states of tune, 133 bhp and 158 bhp (with turbo). The N-series is derived from the Rover K-Series engine. It is expected that this model will be assembled both in China, starting in 2010, and at the MG Motor UK Longbridge plant, in 2011.

Native Chinese responds to Chinese-American on Xinjiang controversy

20 Oct

NOTE: The Chinese-American’s remarks are on brackets followed by the response from a Chinese forum member

<<”I can tell you that the Uyghurs enjoy a very good livelihood in China.”>>

That’s why many Uighur men go to big cities in other provinces to work as street vendors selling lamb kebabs and bread, often living with 10 or more men in a small apartment away from their wives and children for months, just to make a little extra money than they could back home in Xinjiang. That’s why you never see them employed anywhere but Uighur restaurants outside of Xinjiang…

<<”Not only do they not have to abide by the one-child policy, but they can get away with a lot of shit (robbery, rape, murder) b/c of the government’s aversion to incidents like what’s going on in China right now.”>>

There are plenty of photos online of Uighurs being tortured and executed by police. They clearly did not get away with any crime. Even if they steal, there are far more videos on youtube taken by Chinese people of Uighurs being tortured by NORMAL Chinese people, not even police. For example, watch THIS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCv14v-1r1A&feature=related
The Chinese doing the torturing here are the REAL criminals. Also, many Uighurs outside of the provincial capital are forced to have abortions, the same how many Han Chinese are also forced against their will in some villages.
There are far more Han Chinese who commit robbery, rape, and murder than there are minorities. Look at this video from Guangzhou taken on a bridge not too far from the train station: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM7Eq8kIyUE&feature=related

<<”Also, let’s not forget that ethnic minorities in China get affirmative action to China’s best universities.”>>

There is no affirmative action for Uighurs in China’s best universities. I spent a year back in China studying and saw only one Uighur student the entire time. The fact is most Uighurs do not have the same benefits or opportunities as other Chinese, and are often too poor to afford the tuition.
Affirmative action in any form does not exist in China. They are allowed to discriminate based on age, gender, whatever, and they even put signs in the windows of stores saying they’re looking for women or men, young or old, etc.

<<”The Uyghur salesmen were notorious for not pronouncing the prices of their food well on purpose, so that they say “10 yuan” when they’re actually charging 30, so that after they make the food, the buyers have to give 30 yuan.”>>

I have never been cheated by Uighurs, and I frequently buy from them on the streets in any big city I visit. The woman probably didn’t understand their Mandarin, since it can be poor at times, or she herself probably doesn’t speak Mandarin well since she is Cantonese. Anyhow, this actually is often done by Chinese people all over. You mention one incident, but I can personally recount many instances other Chinese have done this to me.

<<”Also, it’s funny that you mention racism from Chinese, when Koreans are much more racist.”>>

The thread is about Cantonese, not all Chinese. I have been all over China, north, south, west, and east, and can say without a doubt, the nastiest, most racist people I have encountered were in Guangdong province and Hainan.

<<”It’s hilarious how so many of you who have been to mainland China once at the most are buying into more white media brainwashing. If you go to China and talk to the locals, you’ll find out that the vast majority of Han and minority Chinese have nothing against one another. But it’s these Uyghur and Tibetan extremists that western media love to portray b/c it’ll stir the most unrest in China.”>>

White media brainwashing? You’re the one talking about the propaganda you see from Xinhua and CCTV. You are either very naive or very brainwashed if you actually believe what the state-operated media in mainland China tells you. I have talked to not only many Han Chinese on the streets, but many minorities including Kazakhs, Uighurs, Hui, Miao, and others. Most minorities do not have nearly as much money as the average Chinese, and almost every Han Chinese will say minorities smell bad, though minorities never have these kind of comments to make about the Han. They only complain about not having the same rights and being oppressed-never say anything about their ethnicity. I have been to Urumqi and Turpan before and have seen kindness frequently exhibited by Uighurs and other minorities in one week that is rarely seen with Han Chinese people. In fact, I visited in January, perhaps the coldest time of year to go. The temperature was -25C out one evening and I had been waiting for a while for a taxi near the Bazaar. An elderly Uighur woman holding two bags had given up the taxi that stopped in front of her and let me take it, even though she is elderly, a woman, holding bags, and was there first. I was stunned. I was also given things for free at stores and invited to sit down and talk with the owners. People on the street would smile and say hello. If you are kind to them, they are kind in return. Also, they may be Muslim, but they are not even that religious. It is a complete exaggeration to call them extremists.
By the way, do you consider Hong Kong news stations as “white media brainwashing” since they report about these things and don’t censor everything like in the mainland.

<<”If you have any experience in China, you’ll know that Han Chinese would rather hit themselves than hit minorities b/c the government cracks down big-time on “hate crimes.”>>

One night in Jianshi liu malu, a Uighur man I often talk to was harassed by several security guards (not even a police) and forced to pay him a bribe to continue to work there. I also saw a Tibetan woman selling earrings and bracelets on yellow rugs on the sidewalk being harassed by a security guard telling her she has to leave. I overheard her telling him it was only 9 o’clock, and she’s allowed to stay until 11, but he was forcing her away. In another instance, in Dongshan kou, 2 Uighur men and a woman were refused by a bus driver, even though they were trying to pay to get on.
Outside my apartment there are usually a few Uighur men who sell lamb and nan, who I used to talk to as I was leaving home. One day one of them was telling me about a Uighur guy who was beaten up by several young Cantonese guys while he was working on the street…he wasn’t even a thief.

<<”They don’t want to stir unrest like what’s happening now. What you don’t hear about are the countless Chinese military personnel and civilians murdered by Uyghur/Tibetan terrorists.”>>

Murdered with what weapons? It’s the soldiers and police that have guns and who are very quick to pull the trigger on people. Last month there was a large riot in Hubei province, with 40,000 people rioting on the streets. The police did not shoot the Han Chinese who threw bricks and bottles at them, nor the ones who beat them with wooden poles. They only shoot minorities who are fewer in number, who could not start a full-scale, nation-wide revolution.

<<”Tibetan guerrillas were funded by the CIA, just like Falun Gong cultists are supported by the US government today. I would not be surprised if there was more shady shit going on right now.”>>

Like China’s involvement in Darfur, for instance? Beijing sells weapons and builds roads and bridges in exchange for oil. Those same weapons are also used to massacre innocent civilians and rape the women.

<<”If Chinese censorship was so good, how would the Uyghurs hear of something happening in Guangzhou if not for western media?”>>

Because Chinese people took the videos themselves and posted them on youku and tudou themselves. You can hear them saying “Beat them, beat them, stop running.” You understand Chinese, go watch the videos I posted above.

You ask Dae where he gets his information from when it is evident that you yourself have never talked to any minorities, nor bothered to learn anything in their language (though they have to learn yours)

Jim Rogers: The Next 10 Years

13 Oct

Jim Rogers: The Next 10 Years

Written by Heather Bell – October 09, 2009 12:40 PM

I’m moving to China … possibly to live in a bunker. At least that was my inclination after listening to a presentation by Jim Rogers yesterday.

Now don’t get me wrong―Mr. Commodities wasn’t all doom and gloom. In fact, his talk was both informative and highly entertaining. But Rogers doesn’t sugarcoat things―he’s very matter-of-fact about his concerns and projections for the future. And most of them don’t bode well for the U.S.

I’ll be posting an interview with Jim Rogers on the site in the coming week, but for now, I just wanted to offer some highlights from his speech at ETF Securities’ mini-conference and the Q&A that followed.

1. The 21st century belongs to China

According to Rogers, the 19th century was the era of the British Empire and the 20th century was the U.S.’ heyday. But the 21st century is China’s (though the rest of Asia is definitely going to get a boost too).

The reasons for this are many, but some points brought up by Rogers include the following:

1. The Chinese want to live like we do;
2. They are more eager to work;
3. They are better at saving;
4. There are 1.5 billion Chinese citizens (and 3 billion people in all of Asia), and we owe them money. They are, according to Rogers, “among the best capitalists in the world.”

There will be some setbacks, of course, Rogers says, but these are opportunities. “If you see setbacks in China, you should pick up the phone and get more involved,” he advised, before adding his favorite refrain, “The best advice of any kind that I can give you is to teach your children and grandchildren Chinese.”

China’s path to world domination started with Deng Xiaoping’s capitalist programs in 1978, and there hasn’t been any looking back since. Rogers views China’s dominance as nigh-on unstoppable except for one little thing: its water problem. There are parts of the country that are running out of water, and when the water disappears, Rogers points out, so does civilization. However, the country is acting aggressively to combat the problem, and he doesn’t view it as that much of a threat.

2a. Jim Rogers is not a Ben Bernanke fan

Yep, it’s a fact. No “Team Bernanke” shirts for Jim Rogers (who said to scattered applause during the Q&A session that if he was in charge of the U.S. economy he would “abolish the Fed and resign.”).

Rogers is appalled by the government’s actions—Bernanke’s in particular. The U.S. government’s strategy calls for the debasement of the dollar, he says, calling it a “horrible policy.” While he concedes it can work in the short term, it NEVER works in the mid- or long term.

“He’s going to run those printing presses until we run out of trees, because that’s the only thing he knows,” Rogers said of Bernanke.

Add that on top of the country’s rapidly growing astronomical debt, and Rogers believes you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

2b. The U.S. dollar is screwed

Consider this a corollary to point 2a. Its status as a reserve currency is teetering on a precipice, in Rogers’ opinion, and he’s not alone. In fact, so many people are selling dollars right now that he’s sitting tight, waiting for a possible—and ultimately unsustainable—rally in order to exit the market. Of course, if it fails to rally and just drops again …

“I’ll just have to panic and sell like everyone else,” Rogers said.

3. Commodities, commodities, commodities

OK, as mentioned before, there are 3 billion people in Asia, most of whom are aspiring to play the home version of the American Dream game show. And let’s face it: American society is largely about consumption. We like stuff―we buy it, we wear it, we eat it, we flaunt it, we sometimes even bedazzle it (yeah, Google that). So that’s a lot more consumption on the global level. Rogers notes that while consumption is expected to increase exponentially, not a lot of capacity has been added in the last few decades for a lot of commodities. Meaning, not a lot of new refineries have been built, and not a lot of new resources have been discovered or excavated for a variety of commodities.

In terms of oil, Rogers cites the fact that Saudi Arabia has not seen any new oil discoveries but has consistently said for the past two decades that its reserves are at 260 billion barrels (in which time it has sold 60 billion barrels). He also points out that farmers are a rapidly disappearing species. So to sum up―that’s a lot more people competing for diminishing resources (including the all-important energy and food). Basic supply and demand theory pretty much takes it from there.

“Commodities are the second-largest asset class in the world,” Rogers noted. And they are “the best anchor” for your portfolio, he adds.

Rogers says the typical life span of a commodities bull market is 18-20 years. We’re currently in year 11 right now. Yeah, it could end tomorrow, but that whole supply and demand imperative could also extend this bull beyond its typical time frame.

During the Q&A session, though, the conversation took a darker turn. One questioner asked if the increased competition for resources might lead to war, and Rogers allowed it was a possibility, though he hoped it would not come to that. He pointed out that when a rising power clashes with an established power, the result is usually war, and said that research consistently shows that resource shortages lead to war. So, sure, commodities shortages might start World War III, but if you invest in the commodities themselves, you might at least be in decent financial shape when the shelling stops—and I’m not being flippant at all. War drives up the costs of commodities.

4. U.S. government bonds are the next big bubble

Well, would you lend money to us? Rogers says short-term bonds are probably OK, but he advises getting out of anything with a longer maturity. He calls it “inconceivable” that anyone would lend money to the U.S. for 30 years at the going rate, and notes that the U.S. was a creditor nation as recently as 1987.

“Now the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world,” he said.

And for bond portfolio managers, he had some very pointed advice: “Get a new job.”

5. Protect yourself

The underlying theme of Rogers’ entire speech was that the world is changing, and here are some things you should know if you want to come out the better for it (and for your family members, clients, etc., to also come out the better for it) financially. Based on Rogers’ observations, it seems recognizing that change is a key step, but so is adapting to it (see advice regarding learning Mandarin, for example). And in Rogers’ eyes, commodities are a good way to achieve this protection. No investment is certain of course, but right now, he thinks commodities look pretty darn good.

Best Comment Of The Night

Addressing one audience member’s question, Rogers asked if the young man were an MBA. The questioner admitted to holding an MBA and was promptly told he should swap his MBA for an agriculture degree from Texas A&M.

“You should become a farmer,” Rogers said.

That’s an old line for Rogers, but he added a new wrinkle. If you’re not going to become a farmer, you should open the first Lamborghini dealership in Iowa. Because with farmers closing in on extinction just as the world needs more food, that’s probably what they’ll be driving in a few years.

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